Cheltenham Betting Tips: Five bets for Thursday
13:30 Cheltenham – Colonel Harry – 1pt e/w @ 40/1
It’s hard to predict what level a horse may have to run to in order to win a race but this year’s renewal of the Turners doesn’t look great on paper and my guess is that you won’t have to be much more than a 150 performer to be in place contention at least, which brings a lot of the field into play.
I could be wrong, and often am, but I’d prefer to be playing a price here. Grey Dawning and Facile Vega head the market with most firms at around the 5/2 mark. The former has a nice profile having won the Hampton in January, whilst the latter could improve for this longer trip.
Grey Dawning was only just behind Ginny’s Destiny at this track in December despite making an awful error two out and was also conceding 3lbs, so should have the beating of the Nicholls horse if all goes to plan. He also hammered him over hurdles last year and I think he’s a better animal.
Facile Vega started promisingly over fences and was second in last year’s Supreme, so has festival previous alongside being a Willie Mullins trained runner. The worry is that he hasn’t progressed over fences and hopes have to be pinned on the stiffer test of stamina bringing him forward.
I’m left wondering whether Colonel Harry may be worth an each-way play at big odds. He was a major flop in the Scilly Isles and that’s not an ideal prep for Cheltenham. The ground was good, however, and it’s pretty clear that he’s not able to perform to his best away from softer conditions.
His previous three chasing outings were a lot more encouraging, jumping well to victory at Chepstow on debut before finishing second in the Grade 1 Henry VIII at Sandown in December. That was an eye-catching effort as he flew up the hill over a trip shy of what looks to be his optimum.
A win at Wetherby followed, defeating a wayward Trelawne over 2m 3f, and despite the runner-up’s problems, the clock spoke favourably, he jumped around well in the main and travelled strongly. There were enough hints that he could make an impact at Grade 1 level going forward.
Where his ceiling is, I have no idea, and I’m also not sure if he’s definitely able to cope with this level of opposition. But price is king and he might be too readily overlooked to post a figure high enough to at least hit one of the places. I’ll take a chance and hope that it proves to be the case.
14:10 Cheltenham – Popova – 1pt e/w @ 14/1
A typically competitive renewal of the Pertemps Final and it’s another case of fire a dart and hope for the best. The handicapper hasn’t taken too many chances with most of the Irish horses but I still think those to concentrate on are running out of the Irish stables.
The one I like the most is Popova for Henry De Bromhead and Rachael Blackmore. She’s down near the foot of the weights and could be open to further improvement, with the latest rise in her performances and handicap mark coming as she has stepped up in trip.
There’s an argument that she would prefer the ground to be better, as it was when she overturned Space Tourist at Listowel in September. On a much more testing surface the next time, she was well behind that rival at Limerick but had to concede 4lbs and I doubt it was solely the ground.
She got back on track in a qualifier for this in November, running on for fourth place over three miles for the first time and was never nearer than at the finish on soft ground. I have a feeling that she was ridden to qualify and avoid much of a rise in the weights, so the objective was achieved.
De Bromhead has put her away since and if the break isn’t a problem, she could be handicapped to trouble this field. It’s only her second go in a handicap beyond the minimum trip and one thing she seems to do is stay very well. She could be good enough to grab one of the six places, at least.
14:50 Cheltenham – Fil Dor – 1pt e/w @ 20/1
No shortage of these can have a case made for them but Fil Dor looks overpriced and interesting now stepped up in distance. On official ratings, he shouldn’t have much of a chance of getting involved at this level but has only raced over a fence five times and all came at around two miles.
He ended up going back hurdling last season after losing his confidence when chasing and that hasn’t done him any harm based on both runs this season. He finished runner up each time but the first race was against Dinoblue and the second was against El Fabiolo, neither simple tasks.
The way he jumped was solid in the main and there’s more chance of him being able to travel better for longer at this trip, especially on the likely testing ground. It’s going to have to bring about a jolt of improvement but he’s still only a six year old and hasn’t reached his limit just yet.
Four places are being paid with a few of the firms and if he puts in a clear round, I have no doubt that he’s up to running on into one of them. If some of the market leaders aren’t at their very best, it’s possible that the win part of the bet could get interesting as well. All in all, 20/1 is worth a go.
15:30 Cheltenham – Teahupoo – 2pts @ 7/4
Teahupoo has had a light campaign this time around, only seen out once, but he’s 4-4 after breaks of a few months or more. Coming in here fresh will hopefully prove to be an advantage and help him to go a couple of places better than he did when third in the 2023 renewal of this.
From a ratings point of view, that performance was below his best and I’m hoping that he’ll be a stronger version of himself this time around,, one that will be more ready for this test. He was only a six year old back then and just couldn’t see it out quickly enough to trouble the judge.
In terms of what he did on his sole start this season, he dropped back to two and a half miles for the Hatton’s Grace and beat last year’s Ballymore winner Impaire Et Passe. He didn’t look to be moving as well as that rival but, where it mattered most, he was able to outstay the Mullins runner.
Heading up to three miles again won’t be a problem, he clearly has a lot of class to be able to see off horses like that over shorter trips and this is the day he’ll have been trained to the minute for. The price is far from mind-blowing but the opposition aren’t great and if he’s at his best, he can win it.
16:10 Cheltenham – Shakem Up’Arry – 1pt e/w @ 10/1
Shakem Up’Arry is not as open to improvement as some of this field but brings a solid level of form to the table and impressed in victory over C&D when last seen in January. He clearly appreciated the drop back in trip that day and, after travelling very strongly, ran out a ready winner.
It was a small field on bad ground so the handicapper hasn’t gone overboard in upping his mark by just 3lbs and I think that keeps him in the reckoning for today. He was third in this race last season when not seeming to be in such good form and clearly enjoys it around Cheltenham.
Whether some of these are just too well treated for him to cope with remains a question that has to be answered but five places are being paid and he has enough about him to be in the mix for one of them. With some luck, it’s not impossible that he’ll be a major win player once again.
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James Boyle is a hugely respected horse racing tipster with a proven track record of profitable analysis of UK and Irish racing for the likes of the Racing Post, RacingFM and Gambling.com. Over the last decade, James has built up an army of followers and you can now find his daily tips exclusively at The Independent.
