Cheltenham top racing tip: Il Ridoto can add sixth December Gold Cup to Paul Nicholls' honours board
13.50 Cheltenham: Virgin Bet December Gold Cup Handicap Chase (2 miles 4½ furlongs)
As usual, we have used recent historical trends to help us reduce the field to a more manageable number for further analysis:
- 19/20 – Aged under 9 years old
- 18/20 – Ran within the last six weeks
- 16/20 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences)
- 15/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
- 15/20 - Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival later that season
- (2 of those were winners, Frodon – Ryanair, and Coole Cody – Plate)
- 15/20 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences
- 14/20 – Had raced over fences at Cheltenham (6 won)
- 13/20 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
- 13/20 – Officially rated 141 or higher
- 12/20 – Aged 6 or 7 years old
- 12/20 – Unplaced favourites
- 11/20 – French bred
- 9/20 – Carried 10st-12lb or more
- 9/20 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
- 9/20 – Ran in the Paddy Power (Nov) Gold Cup last time out (1 won)
- 6/20 – Finished in the top 5 in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last time out
- 5/20 – Won last time out
- 5/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
- 3/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
- 3/20 – Went to an Irish-trained horse
- 2/20 – Trained by David Pipe
- 2/20 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
- 1/20 – Winning favourites
- 9/11 - Carried 10st-12lb or less
The trends left us with a shortlist of three runners: Il Ridoto, Thunder Rock and So Scottish.
Il Ridoto comes from the Paul Nicholls stable, which has a good record in this race with five wins in the last twenty runnings. (The stable also runs Monmiral here with Harry Cobden on board.)
Il Ridoto has already won over course and distance, which is major plus and his jumping tends to be sound, so he looks likely to be in the mix here.
Thunder Rock has been a long-term ante-post favourite for this race and comes here having won a Listed race at Carlisle, beating Mahler Mission.
This is a different race both in the class of opponents and number of runners, but the yard is in form and given a clear round then Thunder Rock should go very close.
So Scottish does not look to have much of a chance here on bare form, as he has only won minor chases to date. However, he does have scope to improve, and we have seen how Emmet Mullins can produce top-class runners both in Ireland and UK. So Scottish sports a first-time tongue tie, which is usually applied to horses with a minor breathing operation.
There are a few horses which could win this race including Thunder Rock, Monmiral and Fakir D’oudairies, but Il Ridoto has a good chance based upon the historic trends above, so I am recommending him as an each way bet, and as always, try to look around for additional places.
