December Gold Cup Tips: Cobden Has Chosen Right in Feature
The feature race of Saturday's card at Cheltenham is of course the December Gold Cup, which sees some exciting chasers clash over the intermediate distance at the Mecca of Jumps Racing. There are chances aplenty in the field, but Billy Grimshaw likes one who requires a bit of faith to support...
Perhaps the place to start when analysing the December Gold Cup is with the favourite Thunder Rock. He heads the market here on the back of beating Mahler Mission at Carlisle, a horse who franked that form running brilliantly in defeat in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury. Clearly this is a decent horse for Olly Murphy, and he could have more progression to come. He looks nicely weighted, but beating the Grand National favourite over 2 and a half miles is not as great a form line as the odds compilers seem to think in my opinion.
Despite the fact the market leader of course has a chance, I'd be more keen on the Ditcheat pair in behind in the market; MONMIRAL and Il Ridoto. Eyebrows were raised in some quarters to see stable jockey at Ditcheat Harry Cobden jocked up on Monmiral rather than Il Ridoto, who will have Bryony Frost in the plate, however I think Cobden has got his selection right. It will have been a real headscratcher for the best jockey in Britain to decide, but although Il Ridoto was good here a month ago and is the more solid proposition, Cobden is on board the horse with more upside.
This was of course a very smart juvenile hurdler, winning all four starts that season for Nicholls as he liked including the Grade 1 at Aintree at the Grand National meeting. The world seemed to be at his feet heading into open company, but he disappointed at 11/5 in the Fighting Fifth of 2021 on seasonal debut. He again flopped as favourite next time out at Fontwell before trailing miles back from Epatante at Aintree. A long summer break followed, but on chase debut he ran what now looks a pretty decent race finishing seven lengths back in second behind Jonbon.
At the time many crabbed Monmiral, but we know now how good Jonbon is. If he was just crabbed post the Jonbon defeat, he was treated a darn sight worse after his next loss when beaten by the unfancied 10/1 shot The Real Whacker as 13/8 favourite. Again though, history looks back on that race fondly with the winner that day of course going on to win the Brown Advisory at the Cheltenham Festival.
His real nadir came when throwing in a stinker in the Scilly Isles behind Gerri Colombe at Sandown, which finally put an end to his hopes of becoming a Grade 1 animal and meant he was sent back hurdling when Aintree came around. Incidentally on this day, Thunder Rock finished 21 lenghts ahead of Monmiral, but the following events prove to me this was not a peak form Monmiral we saw at Sandown. On Merseyside he again disappointed back over the smaller obstacles behind Sire Du Berlais in the Liverpool Hurdle, and thus a disappointing season was over.
I'm aware I've not made a brilliant case slating Monmiral's last two efforts last year, but he had wind surgery over the summer and Paul Nicholls would not send him here, and Cobden certainly wouldn't choose him to ride, were he not training well at home. It is perhaps a leap of faith, but off 145 this will be comfortably the calmest waters he has swam in for some time and if he can get back to near his best, it'll take an almighty good horse to beat him off this mark. Il Ridoto is not that horse, in my view, so while he is a more solid placepot proposition, I can swerve him. So Scottish rates as the main threat in my opinion, with owner-mate Fakir D'Oudairies in here meaning Emmett Mullins' charge is dangerously weighted. Nevertheless, a peak Monmiral beats everything in this field.
Frero Banbou is one I've finally given up on, so we can expect him to bolt up by 10 lengths here for Venetia Williams, while Fugitif is interesting off 2lbs lower than when a not disgraced fourth behind Stage Star here last month. The winner that day could make into a Ryanair contender, so the form could be strong despite the wide margin back from the 1st and 2nd to the rest of them. It's Monmiral for me though, despite the possibility of a blow-out. In Harry Cobden we trust!
