Chicago Cubs Odds, Predictions, Picks: Best Bet for Cubs vs. Los Angeles Angels (June 6)

Chicago Tribune
 
Chicago Cubs Odds, Predictions, Picks: Best Bet for Cubs vs. Los Angeles Angels (June 6)

After playing in San Diego over the weekend, the Cubbies take a short trip up I-5 to play the Angels in Anaheim. So, naturally, we have Cubs vs. Angels predictions for Tuesday’s game.

In a fun schedule quirk, it’s a second straight game on MLB Network for the Cubs. So, finding this game on your television should be relatively easy.

And if you’re going to watch your beloved Cubs, you might as well have some skin in the game.

Odds via FanDuel, current at time of writing and subject to change.

Moneyline: Cubs (+100) vs. Angels (-118)

Spread: Cubs -1.5 (+155) vs. Angels +1.5 (-188)

Total: Over 9.5 (-118) | Under 9.5 (-104)

(9:38 p.m. ET, MLB Network)

Despite getting shut out by Blake Snell on Monday night, I still believe in the Cubs’ offense against southpaws. The numbers don’t lie -- the Cubbies are a top-seven offense by wRC+ and walk rate against left-handed pitching.

Luckily, the Cubs get a much easier matchup than Snell today.

Tyler Anderson is trending way down. His expected ERA is north of 5.00, and his 3.3% K-BB rate is among the worst in MLB. He’s throwing fewer fastballs and trying to rely more on his cutter-changeup mix, and it’s simply not working.

As an aside, think about how often a player leaves the Dodgers and gets worse. Additionally, think about how often a player joins the Angels and gets worse. This perfect storm was bound to result in disastrous results for Tyler Anderson.

The Cubs will start Hayden Wesneski, who grades out as average-to-above-average by FanGraphs’ Pitching+ model despite tough results (4.81 ERA, 5.65 expected ERA). Pitching+ tries to judge the quality of a pitcher’s pitches and process regardless of the results, so I’m hoping better days are ahead for Wesneski (starting on Tuesday).

The Cubs are definitely the better defensive team, especially up the middle between Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner.

Plus, the Cubs likely have the bullpen advantage, considering the Angels boast the fifth-lowest reliever expected FIP over the past two weeks.

So, I quite like Chicago here. I think the Cubbies pose a tremendous matchup issue for Anderson, I see Wesneski as undervalued, and I believe the Cubs have important peripheral advantages that should play out in a Tuesday night victory.

The value is also pretty good. I can’t resist playing the Cubs as underdogs, especially when I think the wrong team is favored.