Cubs vs. Nationals prediction, odds: finding value in a poor pitching matchup

We have a Cubs vs. Nationals prediction as Chicago looks to take care of business and clinch a series win.

The Cubs won convincingly behind breakout starting pitcher Drew Smyly on Monday, beating the Nationals 5-1. However, things will be more difficult on Tuesday behind starting pitcher Hayden Wesneski.

The Nationals will counter with starting pitcher Trevor Williams, the former Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander looking to break out in Washington.

But I have little confidence in either pitcher, and the bullpens also give me pause, opening up value on the total in this matchup.

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Moneyline: Cubs (-142) vs. Nationals (+120)

Spread: Cubs -1.5 (+116) vs. Nationals +1.5 (-140)

Total: Over 8.5 (-122) | Under 8.5 (+100)

Over 8.5 (-122) | Play to 9 (-110)

So, yes, both starting pitchers are bad.

Wesneski has a 5.34 ERA and a 6.34 expected ERA. His strikeout rate is down to 15%, and his ground-ball rate has dropped under 35%; very bad for a guy who relies on a low-90s fastball and sweeper.

However, I’m much more worried about Williams. I’ve never believed in his potential, but now his fastball velocity is down in the early season. He’s dropped to the first percentile of qualified pitchers in whiff rate and the ninth percentile in barrel rate, boasting the dangerous combination of not missing bats and getting hit hard.

Williams also relies heavily on his fastball, throwing it almost half the time. Meanwhile, the Cubs are the third-best fastball-hitting team by Weighted Fastball Runs Created.

The Cubs are smashing the ball in general. They have the third-highest wRC+ (117) and second-highest OPS (. 796) among teams, with six guys in the regular nine-man lineup producing at an above-average rate (by OPS+).

Meanwhile, the Cubs’ bullpen is starting to flail. After a great start to the season, the Cubbies have the third-highest reliever expected FIP (4.81) over the past two weeks.

The Nationals’ bullpen is never good, and they used their best reliever on Monday night (Mason Thompson, 1.89 ERA).

My point is that both pitching staffs are in shambles entering this matchup. And those pitchers will be playing in front of mediocre defenses, as both squads boast negative Outs Above Average marks.

So, if you can’t already guess, I’m eyeing a high-scoring affair in Washington on Tuesday.

The weather is a slight issue, projected to be chilly with cross-field winds.

However, sharp money is hitting the over, according to The Action Network, so sharper bettors are also eyeing this troubling pitching matchup.

So, I’m trusting my initial read and betting the over 8.5 (-122) available at FanDuel Sportsbook. The number was there when writing, but if it isn’t as you’re reading this, I feel good betting this angle up to 9 (-110).