Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions
The Chicago Cubs (72-64) face the Cincinnati Reds (71-67) on Sunday to end a 4-game series. First pitch from the Great American Ballpark is at 12:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Cubs vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Reds lead 7-5
After splitting a doubleheader on Friday, Saturday’s game was a classic pitching duel between 2 teams fighting to make the playoffs.
The Reds won 2-1 as LHP Andrew Abbott threw 6 1/3 innings allowing just 4 hits, including a solo HR to Cubs 3B Jeimer Candelario. Chicago’s RHP Javier Assad, who started this season as a relief pitcher, threw 8 scoreless innings, but the Cubs RHP Mark Leiter Jr, promptly loaded the bases in the bottom of the 9th and the Reds won on a fielder’s choice by RF Hunter Renfroe.
Cubs vs. Reds projected starters
RHP Jameson Taillon vs. RHP Carson Spiers
Taillon (7-9, 5.62 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 121 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 6-2 loss vs. the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday
- 2023 road stats: 4-3, 5.34 ERA (55 2/3 IP, 33 ER) in 11 starts
- Career vs. Reds: 5-5, 4.57 ERA (82 2/3 IP, 42 ER) in 15 starts
Spiers is making his MLB debut. He is 8-3 with a 3.69 ERA with the AA Chattanooga Lookouts and has a 1.34 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 in 83 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 8 K in an 6-5 home loss to the Tennessee Smokies on Sunday
- Allows a .211 opponent batting average against righties and .243 versus lefties.
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Cubs vs. Reds odds
FanDuel Sportsbook access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:53 a.m. ET.
Cubs vs. Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 8, Reds 7
The Cubs are 17-13 as a road favorite while the Reds are 21-24 as a home ‘dog. And while the Reds this year have been great ATS as an underdog (67.3%), they only post a 49.5% win percentage. The Reds may cover but the Cubs should win this game, especially against a rookie pitcher.
BET CUBS -134.
The Reds have been the best team ATS this year. And, like the Baltimore Orioles last year, the Reds are covering because the sportsbooks were not expecting the team to be good this year. Of their 138 games, the Reds have been underdogs in 107 of them, covering in 72 of those games (67.3%).
That being said, there is more value in picking the Cubs moneyline than the Reds ATS so I would PASS and stay with the moneyline.
After Saturday night’s pitching duel, expect the offense of both teams to return, but note that the Cubs have gone Under in their last 6 games and the Reds in their last 7.
Despite that streak the overall trends point to more runs. Coming off a loss the Cubs have the 4th best Over record (35-28) in MLB, while the Reds have the 5th best Over record (38-32) after a win.
The sportsbooks also expect a high scoring game, hence their line. But I still LEAN OVER 11 (-112).
