St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

The Cincinnati Reds (20-28) and the St. Louis Cardinals (22-28) meet Wednesday in Great American Ball Park for the 3rd game of a 4-game series. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The Cardinals evened the series with an 8-5 victory Tuesday as -137 favorites.

In Monday’s opener, the Reds snapped a 4-game losing streak with a 6-5 win in 10-innings as +167 underdogs. Cincinnati is 4-7 over its last 11 home games.

The Cardinals have won 5 of their last 7 games, including a 3-1 series victory against the Los Angeles Dodgers prior to coming to Cincinnati. St. Louis sits 4th in the NL Central.

Cardinals at Reds projected starters

LHP Steven Matz vs. RHP Ben Lively

Matz (0-5, 5.05 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.62 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 46 1/3 innings.

• Is 5-8 in his second season with the Cardinals, following a 14-7 campaign with the Toronto Blue Jays the season prior
• The Cardinals are 2-3 in Matz’s last 5 starts.

Lively (1-2, 2.45 ERA) makes his 4th appearance and 2nd start. He has a 0.73 WHIP, 0.8 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 11 innings.

• Last start Friday vs. New York Yankees: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
• Has 21 starts in his 29 career appearances since 2017
• Lively has allowed just 7 hits in 11 innings.

Cardinals at Reds odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 11:20 p.m. ET.

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Cardinals at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 6, Reds 5

AVOID.

The Cardinals are just 11-13 on the road while the Reds are 13-13 at home this season. Their bullpen has performed better than expected, and it should get a good amount of action on Wednesday. The Reds are more worthy of a spread play given the value.

BET REDS +1.5 (-115).

The Reds are a strong 26-22 ATS this season, and they have covered in 2 of their 3 games in which Lively has started on the mound.

The Cardinals are starting a pitcher who hasn’t performed well this season, and they are just 23-27 ATS on the year. Ultimately, given the season-long trends, back the REDS +1.5 (-115).

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LEAN OVER 10 (-115).

Both teams have consistently covered the Over. Both games in this series have hit double figures as well.

St. Louis is 27-22-1 O/U this season, and it has gone Over in 4 straight games. Cincinnati is 26-22 O/U on the season and 4-2 O/U in its last 6 games. Take the OVER 10 (-115).

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