Chiefs vs. Bills player props: Top 5 best bets and odds
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The Kansas City Chiefs are taking on the Buffalo Bills in the NFL Playoffs for the third time during the Patrick Mahomes-Josh Allen era in the Divisional Round on Sunday night.
The Bills enter as slight favorites despite being 0-2 in the playoff series — however, they beat the Chiefs in the regular season and get to host the playoff matchup for the first time.
As both teams prepare to fight for a ticket to the AFC Championship Game, here are our Top 5 player props to target for the Chiefs vs. Bills divisional matchup.
Patrick Mahomes passing props: Under 37.5 pass attempts (-125 or better)
Mahomes threw 41 passes last week despite playing in a real feel of roughly minus-30 degrees. However, the Chiefs possessed the ball for more than 34 minutes which, if averaged out across the whole season, would have led the NFL by more than a minute and a half.
The Bills have a great chance to keep hold of the ball much longer than the Miami Dolphins did, which will give Mahomes fewer opportunities to throw the ball. The Bills also aren’t great against the run, which should incentivize Andy Reid to dial up more runs in another cold-weather game.
Josh Allen rushing odds: Over 43.5 rushing yards (-114 or better)
Allen has been nothing short of sensational as a runner this season. He already has 16 touchdowns on the ground and beat this total in each of the last two weeks, running for 67 and 74 yards.
Buffalo’s star QB also beat this line in both playoff meetings with the Chiefs, during which he rumbled for 68 and 88 yards. New OC Joe Brady loves to dial up runs, and Allen carried the ball an average of 11.3 times per game over his last three outings — more than enough volume to get over his line.
Chiefs vs. Bills TD props: Travis Kelce anytime touchdown scorer (+140 or better)
Kelce only caught five regular-season touchdowns and has not found the end zone since Week 11. However, he’s the only player on the Chiefs’ roster not named Mahomes who’s been in moments as big as this one, and we expect the two-time MVP to give his favorite target plenty of looks in crucial moments.
Kelce was the recipient of 10 targets last week, meaning that only he and Rashee Rice (12) received more than three targets. Big games are meant for big players, and Kelce’s playoff resume is unimpeachable.
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Stefon Diggs player prop: Over 5.5 receptions (-120 or better)
Much has been made of Diggs’ declining role in the offense. While there’s an undeniable truth to that, he caught seven passes each of the last two weeks (in the Bills’ two biggest games of the season) his most since Week 8.
The Chiefs have an outstanding defense, which means Diggs is going to need to become more of a short and intermediate threat. Regardless, his skill set should separate him from his receiver teammates against one of the league’s best defenses.
Chiefs Divisional Round player props: Isiah Pacheco over 60.5 rushing yards (-115 or better)
Pacheco ran the ball a season-high 24 times for 89 yards and a touchdown in the Wild Card round. He averaged 17.3 carries and 80.7 yards over his last seven outings, clearing this line five times.
Given Pacheco’s physical presence in less-than-desirable conditions and massive role last week, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see another hefty workload for the second-year back. Buffalo also ranked just 15th in average rushing yards allowed (110.3) and should give Pacheco enough of an opportunity to climb past 60 yards.
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Grant is a Virginia-based writer for Catena Media who graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 with a degree in sports media & analytics. He has contributed to well-known publications such as Forbes, and appeared on the VSiN TV network. You can keep up with Grant's work here or by checking out his YouTube channel "The Sitch With Grant Mitchell.”
