5 bets to make for AFC & NFC Championship Games

Sports Betting Dime provides exclusive sports betting content to MassLive.com, including real-time odds, picks, analysis and sportsbook offers to help sports fans get in on the action. Please wager responsibly.

Just two games remain to decide who will participate in Super Bowl 57 on Sunday, February 12, 2023, in Arizona.

This weekend the AFC and NFC Championship Games take place between the Bengals vs Chiefs and 49ers vs Eagles.

Will the favorites prevail or could we see an upset? Which player props should you consider for your Conference Championship picks?

We cover some of the best bets to make for the NFL Playoffs here.

While Cincinnati may be the number three seed in the AFC, Patrick Mahomes’ high ankle sprain in the Divisional Round saw a flood of money pour in on the Bengals this week. Thus, moving the line from KC -2.5, all the way to Cincinnati -2.5. The spread has settled back at KC -1.5 as Mahomes has been able to practice this week leading up to the game.

Both of these teams are scorching hot heading into the Conference Championships. The Bengals have won ten straight, while the Chiefs have won six in a row and 11 of 12. That one loss for the Chiefs came against this Bengals team, losing 27-24 in Cincinnati on December 4.

The Bengals outgained the Chiefs in total yards, first downs, third down efficiency, total plays and time of possession. Each team only punted once, but the Chiefs lost one fumble.

Cincy and Joe Burrow just look to be in a little better form heading into this AFC title game. Burrow is on a 20-5 personal ATS run and is 16-1 ATS in his last 17 games against non-division opponents. The Bengals are also 13-5 ATS this season, while the Chiefs are just 6-11-1 and 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus teams with a winning record.

Cincinnati were underdogs against the Chiefs in each of their past three meetings in the last year and have won outright in all three. They’ve also owned KC going further back having won six of the past seven head-to-heads.

Sure, Mahomes at any capacity is still better than many quarterbacks, but if he’s limited in his scrambling abilities, I’ll back Burrow and the Bengals in my AFC title against the spread picks.

Pick: Bengals +1.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

While Wild Card games went 5-1 to the over in this year’s NFL Playoffs, last week was the first time since 1990 that every Divisional Round Playoff game fell under the total.

While that doesn’t mean that will carry over into the Conference Championships, we could have a perfect recipe for another under in the NFC title game.

During the regular season, these teams ranked top-two in yards allowed per game, with San Fran first and Philly second. In a shorter sample size in the playoffs, these defenses have continued to be strong. The Eagles are first among playoff teams in yards allowed per game, while the 49ers are third.

When it comes to points allowed per game (PPG), yet again these teams rose to the top this season. San Fran ranked first allowing 16.3 PPG and Philadelphia seventh at 20.2 PPG.

The 49ers had regularly been putting up over 20, 30, or even 40 points a game on offense in recent weeks, but that came against weak defenses like the Dolphins, Seahawks, Raiders, and Cardinals. Against a respectable defense like the Cowboys who ranked 12th in yards allowed average this season, they managed only 19 points and didn’t find the endzone until the fourth quarter.

It’s hard to get an accurate gauge on recent Eagles’ results with Jalen Hurts missing time, two games coming against a poor Giants offense and even meetings with other offensively challenged teams like the Saints and Bears in recent weeks. But regardless, their scorelines in their past five games would have gone under the current total of 46.5 in four of those games.

Neither quarterback put up huge numbers last week with Hurts throwing for 154 yards or the Eagles and Purdy just 214 for the 49ers.

This one looks like a slugfest that will ultimately fall under the total.

Pick: 49ers vs Eagles under 46.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Here are three more props to consider in your Conference Championship picks.

Last week Kelce was targeted 17 times in the passing game for Kansas City. The tight end caught 14 of those passes for 98 yards and two touchdowns. The Bengals gave up the eighth-most catches to tight ends this season and with Mahomes likely limited with an injury, he may be looking even more to a safety valve over the middle in Kelce.

Pick: Travis Kelce over 6.5 receptions (-155 at DraftKings)

Ja’Marr Chase scored the first touchdown of the game last week against Buffalo. That made it touchdowns in five of six and seven of nine recent games for the wide receiver. Chase continually sees plenty of passes from Burrow, being targeted ten or more times in eight of ten games of late.

Pick: Ja’Marr Chase anytime touchdown (+100 at DraftKings)

Kenneth Gainwell had a huge day last week against the Giants totaling 112 yards rushing and nine yards receiving. Gainwell now has receiving totals of 9, 7, 17, 41 and 9 yards, on catches of 1, 1, 2, 4, and 2. The 49ers have given up an average of 32.4 yards receiving to running backs this season. Even a fraction of that total would easily cash this NFL player prop for us.

Pick: Kenneth Gainwell over 8.5 receiving yards (-120 at DraftKings)

If you or a loved one has questions and needs to talk to a professional about gambling, call the Massachusetts Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org to speak with a trained specialist to receive support. Specialists are available 24/7. Services are available in multiple languages and are free and confidential.