Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and predictions

The Kansas City Royals (18-47) welcome the Cincinnati Reds (31-35) to Kauffman Stadium Monday. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Reds vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting since 2021 season when Reds won 2 of 3

After a 5-game win streak to end May, the Reds have gone 5-6 in June. They have won their last 2 series against the Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals. They beat the Cardinals 4-3 on Sunday and are 2-1 on their current 3-city, 9-game road trip.

The Royals, who lost 11-3 on Sunday to the Baltimore Orioles, have dropped 6 straight games and 9 of their last 10. They have won just 2 of their last 6 home games as well.

Reds at Royals projected starters

RHP Luke Weaver vs. RHP Zach Greinke

Weaver (1-2, 6.27 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 47 1/3 innings.

• Was abused by the Dodgers in Tuesday start: 3 2/3 IP, 6 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
• Has allowed 3 or more ER in 3 of his last 4 starts
• Reds are 4-5 in his starts

Greinke (1-6, 4.59 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 66 2/3 innings.

• Is just 5-14 in his 2 seasons in Kansas City
• Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 3 K in 6-1 loss to Miami Marlins on Tuesday
• Royals are 3-10 in his starts

Reds at Royals odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:20 a.m. ET.

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Reds at Royals picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 6, Royals 5

BET REDS (+100).

Simply put, the Reds are on a 2-game win streak and the Royals have lost 6 in a row. While the Reds are 14-17 on the road, the Royals are a much worse 9-23 at home. The Royals are 3-9 straight up as a home favorite, the worst win rate as a home favorite in the MLB.

The pitching difference is notable, however, the Reds sit 12th in batting average (.255) while the Royals rank 25th (.230). Cincinnati’s hitting is just that much better here.

Take REDS (+100).

PASS.

The Royals as a favorite, despite being at home, isn’t a strong play. They are a league-worst 8-24 on the run line at home. For the Reds, the preferred bet here would be on the moneyline.

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LEAN OVER 9 (-105).

The Reds are 4-2 O/U in their last 6 games. They are 37-29 O/U on the season as well as 8-1 O/U in their last 9 road games.

Kansas City has consistently gone Under, but it will get a pitcher with a 6.27 ERA in Weaver and should be able to consistently get on base early.

Weaver has allowed a combined 10 ER in his last 2 starts. Expect the Royals to be able to contribute some during his innings. Back the OVER 9 (-105).

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