Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Washington Wizards Prediction, Preview, and Odds
At opposite ends of the Eastern Conference, Washington and Cleveland meet for a midweek tilt. The Cavaliers (32-16 SU, 26-22 ATS) won big against Sacramento on Monday night, 136-110, as -4.5 favorites at home. The Wizards (9-40 SU, 22-25-2 ATS) got smoke at home against Phoenix on Sunday, 140-112, as +11 underdogs. Things tip off in this one at 7:10 EST from the Capital One Arena.
Cleveland has turned steamroller
The Cavaliers roll into the Nation’s Capital as the second-place team in the Eastern Conference, winners of six straight games and 14 of their last 15. Over their last six, they averaged 119.8 points per game and this season they are putting up 114.8 points per game, 17 in the NBA. They are shooting 48.1% from the field and 36.2% from three-point range while averaging 13.4 threes and 16 free throws each game. They are turning the ball over 12.9 times per game and have a 1.99 assist-to-turnover ratio which ranks 15 overall. Donovan Mitchell has led the team in scoring throughout the current win streak and over the last seven games, with an average of 30.4 points per game in that stretch. The Cavs’ guard is sixth in the league with 28.2 points per game and tenth with 3.3 three pointers per game.
On the defensive end, the Cavs are giving up 109.7 points per game this season, the third best mark in the NBA. Opponents are shooting 45.5% from the field against them, and 34% from three-point range. Teams also average 12.1 three pointers and 17.9 free throws per game versus Cleveland. They are seventh in the league with 45.1 rebounds per game and they have a +2.8-rebound differential. The Cavaliers’ defense is also averaging 7.8 steals and 4.6 blocks per game. Center Jarrett Allen is ninth in the NBA with 10.6 rebounds per game. Mitchell is second in the league with 1.9 steals per game.
Washington close to bottoming out
The beat goes on for the Wizards, who sit in second-to-last place in the Eastern Conference as the losses add up, including their last three games. Over their last five, the offense has churned out 111.8 points per game and this season they’ve averaged 114.7 per game, 18 in the NBA. They are shooting 48.1% from the field and 36.2% from three-point range while knocking down 11.8 threes and 16.2 free throws a night. Their 13.3 turnovers per game are the 11 most in the league and their 2.04 assist-to-turnover ratio ranks 12 overall. Deni Avdija led the team with 24 points in the loss against Phoenix, shooting 10-13 from the field with three threes. Over his last seven games, the forward has averaged 15.4 points per game on 59.7% shooting. Avdija is 39 in the league overall, shooting 51.2% on the year.
Washington’s defense is yielding 124 points per game this season, the most in the league. Teams have shot 49.7% from the field against them and 37.5% from beyond the arc while also hitting them up for 12.7 threes and 18.7 free throws each night. The Wiz are on the glass for just 40.4 rebounds per game, against dead last in the league, and they have a -9-rebound differential. Their defense does average 7.7 steals and 5.5 blocks per game. Daniel Gafford ranks seventh in the league with 2.1 blocks per game. The Wizards’ center turned back eight total shots over the last three games.
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Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:
This is the third meeting of the season between these two. The first two came in back-to-back games early in January, with the Cavs winning both SU and ATS by an average margin of 31.5 points. The Wizards have won all of three games at home, straight up, this season with their last win there coming back on December 9th. Now, they welcome in the hottest team in the game and the Cavs are truly a force to reckon with of late. Of Cleveland’s last 14 wins, nine were by more than 11 points. They will roll the lame Washington defense without too much resistance. Washington is 7-17 ATS at home this season and Cleveland is 12-9-1 ATS on the road.
Take the Cavs giving the points.
Prediction: Cleveland -11
Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:
In the two prior meetings this season these two teams averaged a combined 222.5 points per game. Washington’s offense had some very off nights in both of those games, but they do rank first in pace per DunksandThrees.com, so they should be able to do more here, especially at home. Cleveland ranks 19th in pace, so factoring their combined efforts, somewhere in the middle we still have a great shot at a high-scoring game here. Cleveland’s offense has put up at least 118 points in four of their last eight games and Washington has done the same twice in their last five. The Cavaliers' defense recently allowed Detroit to put up 121, so they tend to maybe give some of these lower teams a little more slack. The over has hit 45 times between the two teams this season.
Take the over.
Prediction: Over 234.5
A sportswriter for over a decade, Craig has covered everything from the little leagues to the big leagues. His work has been seen on MLB.com, ESPN.com and in the sports pages of the Boston Globe and Miami Herald, among others. Having had a front-row seat to all the action, he has been able to positively blend a little bit of the old and the new when it comes to analyzing the game and breaking it all down. Though longing for the days of the old football card that would be passed around in the halls of high school, Craig is happy to see the business flourishing and ready to put his own mark on things as he joins our team here at StatSalt and Winners & Whiners.
