College Basketball Best Bets, Feb. 22: SMU vs FAU, Minnesota vs Ohio State, More!

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bets for the College Basketball slate, including Ohio State at Minnesota and FAU hosting SMU.

Ohio State at Minnesota: O/U 138.5

Ohio State earned the home upset over Purdue on Sunday just days after firing head coach Chris Holtmann. Now, OSU who has a 16-game road losing streak, goes to Minnesota to face the 14-3 home Gophers.

The Gophers are shooting 57.3% from two at home (37th) and should see a boost to its 35.8% from deep (134th) against a road Buckeyes defense. OSU is ranked 360th with a 44.9% three-point percentage allowed in seven road games and the 350th defensive turnover percentage (12.2%).

The Buckeyes haven’t won back-to-back games since Dec. 30 to Jan. 3. OSU lost by 6,14, and 8 points following their last three wins and all three games came on the road.

Ohio State could go on a run, but I will say beating Purdue and winning a road game the following contest is asking a lot of the Buckeyes. Ohio State’s season isn’t over by any means, but they have a lot of work to do even with a win here.

Give me Minnesota -3.5 at -105 odds and would go out to -5 for 1 unit. The spread is -3.5 and similair odds everywhere.

Pick: Minnesota -3.5 (1.5u)

Michigan at Northwestern (-11.5): O/U 137.5

Northwestern almost won four straight games, but a three-point loss at Rutgers is the only blemish on its record in that span.

The Wildcats host the Wolverines without their leading scorer Dug McDaniel (16.6 PPG), which has been a problem for Michigan on the road.

Michigan is 2-7 in true road games this season (1-6 in Big Ten) with six straight losses. The Wolverines have one of the worst road three-point defenses in the country (41.6%, 358th) and turn the ball over 18.4% of offensive possessions in conference road games with a 69.4% free-throw percentage (both 3rd-worst).

Michigan scored 29, 25, 35, 25, and 33 points in the last five first halves on the road (29.4 PPG) and play at the 7th-quickest tempo in conference road games. Northwestern is 9th in tempo at home during Big Ten games and 299th overall this season.

Northwestern should have its way and win by double-digits, which is a lean at -11.5 and -12. The Wildcats have won seven straight at home and held most of those teams hovering just above or below 30 points at the half.

I played Michigan’s First Half Team Total Under 29.5 at -125 / -130 odds on DraftKings and would go out to 28.5 for +100 on FanDuel.

Pick: Michigan 1H Team Total Under 29.5 (1u)

SMU at FAU (-6): O/U 153.5

FAU is coming off a road loss at South Florida and come home to face a SMU squad that how was six straight games (8th-longest active streak).

This is the only meeting of the season between the two and both defenses play at the bottom four slowest tempos, opposite of the offenses.

Off a loss, FAU held its opponents to 42 (N), 20 (H), 36 (A), 38 (A), and 36 (A) points in the first half for 34.4 PPG. However, only once in five of those instances did FAU have a home game following a loss. Despite that, FAU hasn’t lost back-to-back games all year.

On the road, SMU is 5-4 in nine games with a 63.5% free-throw percentage (349th) and middle of the ranks for two (50.8%) and three-point (34.9%) percentages in six conference road games. FAU is 10-1 at home and a perfect 6-0 in conference play.

I like the Owls to bounce back and win this game, but the best bet is to focus on SMU to struggle a little on the road to start this game. I played the Mustangs’ First Half Team Total Under 34.5 at +102 odds on FanDuel and would go down to 33.5 for 1 unit.

Pick: SMU 1H Team Total Under 34.5 (1u)

Season Record: 39-31 (55.7%) +3.5 units

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