College Football Odds: Upsets & Underdogs Picks for Week 4
Arkansas' pass defense is leakier than a busted faucet but Texas A&M can be worn down by the run and might be caught off guard by the Hogs' dynamic offense. See why they highlight our Week 4 college football upset picks.
Last weekend was not a good one for our college football upset picks. It started out with Western Kentucky taking what should’ve been a nice win and emptying their entire bladder in the closing minutes. Had they held on, it would’ve been a break-even weekend, but instead, it set up a rough day where we went winless on our three picks.
Nevertheless, we return this week with three more games where the underdog has a terrific chance of covering or potentially winning outright. Let’s dive right in and look at three games you should be keying on for an upset in Week 4 of the college football season.
College football upset picks for Week 4
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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USF (+460) at Louisville
For me, there won’t be many more entertaining games on Saturday from an offensive point of view than South Florida against Louisville. Malik Cunningham is as dynamic as they come and can break a long run if given the slightest bit of space. Furthermore, the Bulls have a rushing attack that can hit you from nearly every angle.
When it’s all over, I expect the Cardinals to be victorious and move to 2-2 on the season. That said, I don’t think it’s going to be an easy win, nor do I think they will come close to covering a spread of more than two touchdowns.
I get the fact that USF got pantsed earlier this season by BYU at home, but last weekend, they went into the Swamp and gave Florida all they could handle. Despite quarterback Gerry Bohanon throwing two picks, they charged back from a 24-10 hole and actually led in the fourth quarter.
Much of their success last weekend came on the back of a ground attack that saw Bohanon and his stable of running backs post 286 yards on 46 carries. They broke off 10 different run plays of double-digit yardage against a solid Florida defense. Now they face a Louisville defense that has been abysmal against the run since head coach Scott Satterfield took over.
In their loss to Florida State last weekend, they allowed seven runs of 10 or more yards, including four of 25 yards or more. While their schemes have been of concern, the bigger issue has been their poor tackling, which has shown up in both of their losses.
A game like this comes down to how well you take care of the football, and how well you finish off drives. Louisville has had issues holding onto the ball, with four fumbles already this season, including a crucial one by Cunningham inside the 10-yard line last week.
That speaks to their other big issue on offense: their inability to capitalize on red zone opportunities. Their conversion rate of 72.7% is among the worst in the country, and their opponent this week ranks 39th in the country at keeping teams from finishing their red zone chances.
Bohanon has yet to throw a touchdown pass this season, but he might not need one against Louisville with the way USF should run the ball on Saturday. Both of these run games should feast on one another, but USF will hang around and cover the number. That said, if the Cardinals turn the ball over three times again the way they did in each of their losses, don’t be surprised to see the Bulls sneak out of Louisville with an upset win.
PICK: USF +15 (-110)
Iowa at Rutgers (+221)
Contrastingly, I must preface this by saying I have no desire to watch this game. It could be a choice between watching this game, or watching paint dry, and I’d ask what’s the difference. OK, that might be a bit harsh, but neither of these two teams are very good offensively. Lucky for them, they both have outstanding defensive units, which is enough to keep them both in most games this season.
Iowa’s average offensive numbers per game through three contests reads like something you’d see from many teams well before halftime. They’re barely averaging 100 passing yards per contest, and their 57.5 yards per game on the ground is a drastic departure from years past. The Hawkeyes are gaining fewer than two yards per carry, among the five worst rates in the country, and while quarterback Spencer Petras was able to have a decent showing last weekend against Nevada, much of that was a product of the poor secondary play he saw.
Rutgers might not have the best secondary in the country, but they’re monsters against the run, holding their opponents to just 97 rushing yards. Mind you, that’s not 97 yards per game, it’s 97 yards total. For the season. They allowed Temple to run for just 49 on 30 carries last weekend. They’re also terrific at getting off the field, allowing just 13 third-down conversions in 44 attempts, and have intercepted five passes already this season.
The Hawkeyes were able to run the ball last week, which took pressure off Petras. This week will be his first road trip of the season against a stingy defense, and that should see him revert to his tendencies of poor decision-making and holding the ball too long.
Rutgers has lost 19 straight games at home in conference play, and Saturday’s game could very well see it lose number 20. But it’s hard for me to see the Scarlet Knights as being underdogs of more than a touchdown against a team with a putrid offense that will struggle to move the ball. This should be a low-scoring snoozer between the two worst offenses in the Big 10, but it’ll be one where the underdog covers the number.
PICK: Rutgers +7.5 (-110)
#10 Arkansas (+115) at #23 Texas A&M
Arkansas has one of the worst pass defenses in the country. I’ve had two surgeries on my left knee, and despite that, I think I might be able to run a route and get open against that secondary.
The Hogs are allowing 353 passing yards per game. That’s more than any other team in the country, and only six other teams are even giving up more than 300 per game. The next-worst Power Five team, Northwestern, is allowing nearly 70 fewer passing yards per game.
The good news for Arkansas is that their opponent this week might be one of the few teams that can’t take advantage of that weakness. The Aggies have been so poor through the air that they changed quarterbacks last week, starting LSU transfer Max Johnson against Miami. The Aggies’ 99th-ranked passing offense is throwing for just 208 yards through the air this season, and Johnson actually lowered that number with a 140-yard performance against the Hurricanes.
Arkansas has a dynamic quarterback in KJ Jefferson who can cause the Aggies problems on defense, as stellar as they’ve been this season. They’re allowing fewer than nine points a game, but they haven’t faced an offense as dynamic as what they’ll see on Saturday. On the flip side, Arkansas features a terrific front seven, giving up just 68 yards per game on the ground. It also has a strong pass rush behind former Alabama linebacker Drew Sanders, who leads the nation with six sacks.
This is a rivalry game, which always means strange things can happen. More importantly, it’s at AT&T Stadium and not on the Texas A&M campus, which takes away the rowdy atmosphere and the home-field advantage that the Aggies enjoy (not that App State minded at all). The Hogs are going to test A&M’s defense behind a strong rushing attack and the best offensive line the Aggies have seen all season, and App State has already shown that the A&M defense can be worn down by a commitment to the run game.
Arkansas has something to prove after nearly losing to Missouri State last weekend, and they will do so on Saturday. Take the Hogs to not only cover against their rivals for the fifth straight time, but to win the Southwest Classic outright.
PICK: Arkansas moneyline (+115)
Last week: 0-3, -3.0 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
Season:1-8, -7.0 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
