College football picks: North Carolina vs. NC State prediction, odds, spread, game preview for ACC finale

The North Carolina Tar Heels take on the NC State Wolfpack in an ACC matchup in Week 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 25. NC State has won the last two meetings between the programs.

North Carolina (8-3, 4-3 ACC) grabbed a big overtime win over Duke two weeks ago before falling to Clemson in Week 12. In the 31-20 loss, UNC quarterback Drake Maye passed for one touchdown and one interception, and running back Omarion Hampton rushed for 178 yards and two touchdowns. The Tar Heels defense struggled to contain the Tigers’ ground game — a weakness that has been a trend throughout their three losses this season.

NC State (8-3, 5-2 ACC) has been on a four-game winning streak since defeating Clemson earlier this season. Their latest was a 35-28 win over Virginia Tech in which quarterback Brennan Armstrong passed for 203 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for 89 yards and another two touchdowns.

Here’s everything you need to know and a pick for the game.

SP+ Rankings

North Carolina: 18 overall, 9 offense, 64 defense
NC State: 42 overall, 75 offense, 22 defense

Injury update

North Carolina

RB George Pettaway - Questionable (undisclosed)

NC State

RB Michael Allen - Questionable (undisclosed)
RB Demarcus Jones II - Questionable (undisclosed)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread in 2023

North Carolina: 6-5 ATS
NC State: 6-5 ATS

Total in 2023

North Carolina: Over 5-5-1
NC State: Over 3-8

Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: UNC -2.5
Total: 55
Moneyline: UNC -130, NC State +110

Weather

Our Best Bet for North Carolina vs. NC State

NC State +2.5

The Wolfpack have been dominating this series over the last several years, and while UNC had a better start to the season than NC State, the roles have flipped over the last month. NC State has not backed down against opponents with much bigger profiles than the Heels, and with home field advantage, I like the Wolfpack to cover here.