College football picks, Week 11: Duke vs. North Carolina prediction, odds, spread, game preview, more

The Duke Blue Devils take on the No. 24 North Carolina Tar Heels in an ACC matchup in Week 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 11 from Chapel Hill.

Duke (6-3, 3-2 ACC) will likely be playing with a third-string quarterback in this rivalry matchup after losing Riley Leonard to a toe injury and backup Henry Belin to an upper body injury. The Blue Devils had an extremely promising start to their season, but injury troubles at the QB position have limited them in ACC play. In their latest game, they defeated Wake Forest, 24-21, with third-string QB Grayson Loftis under center. Jordan Waters and Jaquez Moore each had 76 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown in the Week 10 win.

UNC (7-2, 3-2 ACC) suffered two very, very unexpected losses in a row after starting the season at 6-0. They fell to Virginia and Georgia Tech, two ACC bottom feeders, and finally broke out of their slump with a 59-7 win over Campbell last week. Quarterback Drake Maye has continued to look excellent, passing for over 300 yards in each of the losses, but the UNC defense has struggled to get a stop.

Here’s everything you need to know and a pick for the game.

SP+ Rankings

Duke: 32 overall, 60 offense, 25 defense
UNC: 19 overall, 8 offense, 49 defense

Injury update

Duke

QB Riley Leonard - Out indefinitely (toe)
QB Henry Belin IV - Questionable (upper body)

North Carolina

RB Caleb Hood - Questionable (upper body)WR Nate McCollum - Questionable (lower body)

RB George Pettaway - Questionable (undisclosed)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread in 2023

Duke: 4-5 ATS
UNC: 6-3 ATS

Total in 2023

Duke: Over 4-4-1
UNC: Over 4-4-1

Team Pace

Duke: 28.4 seconds per play
UNC: 23.1 seconds per play

Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: UNC -11.5
Total: 52.5
Moneyline: UNC -520, Duke +390

Weather

Our Best Bet for Duke vs. North Carolina

North Carolina -11.5

Duke will be playing with their third-string quarterback, and while the UNC defense has struggled this season in places where it shouldn’t have, this rivalry matchup on their home field should wake them up. Drake Maye is a difference-maker in this battle, and UNC wins by a comfortable margin.