Pittsburgh vs. Duke Prediction, Preview, and Odds

The Pittsburgh Panthers (3-8, 3-7-1 ATS, 7-4 O/U) meet with the Duke Blue Devils (6-5, 5-6 ATS, 6-4-1 O/U) as the ACC rivals conclude the season on Saturday afternoon. The Panthers earned a home win against Boston College last week. The Blue Devils dropped a road decision against Virginia in their previous clash. Pittsburgh recorded a 28-26 home win in last year's meeting.

When it comes to college football picks, our NCAAF Predictions are stellar.

Pittsburgh Ends Slide in Win vs. Boston College

The Pittsburgh Panthers are hoping to conclude the season with four victories. It has been a poor season on a team that struggles mightily to produce offense. Pittsburgh was 1-4 to begin the season and was not able to find any sort of groove. Pittsburgh beat Louisville 38-21 in October and proceeded to lose the next four clashes including a loss against Syracuse two weeks ago. They rebounded with a solid 24-16 home win against Boston College last week in a bout that had Pittsburgh marked as small 1.5-point favorites to improve to 2-5 in ACC play. They have covered the spread in two of their last three bouts.

Christian Veilleux has been getting the action under center in place of Phil Jurkovec who was the original #1 QB. Veilleux has been subpar. The sophomore QB has only reached more than 245 passing yards in one of his six games and has recorded 1179 passing yards and a 7:8 TD to INT ratio on the season.

Pittsburgh has a weak running game. Rodney Hammond Jr. is capable of big numbers. The junior RB accrued 145 rushing yards last week, marking his best game of the season. He now has 526 rushing yards on an average of 5 yards per rush. They have two receivers with at least 500 yards led by Bub Means. The senior WR has reached 100 yards once this season and has reported 636 receiving yards while Konata Mumpfield has 566 yards. The Pittsburgh offense has not been able to break out. They have scored 24 or fewer points in five straight clashes.

— Pitt Football (@Pitt_FB) November 17, 2023

The Panthers defense is decent. They managed to keep Louisville and Wake Forest to just 21 points early in conference play and only 24 against Florida State. The group was outstanding last week, allowing only 325 total yards against Boston College. The pass defense is a strength, marking 39th while the rush defense is placed 82nd.

Pittsburgh is averaging 20.3 points on the season, pegging them 115th. They are conceding an average of 27.1 points, placing them 78th.

Duke Hit with Second Consecutive Loss

The Duke Blue Devils are home after two straight road games. The squad is 5-1 at home this season. Duke enjoyed a remarkable opening month of the season that resulted in a 4-0 record but has been shaky since. Duke has lost four of their last five games with the only win in that span a 24-21 home win against Wake Forest early this month. They were three-point favorites in a 30-27 road loss to Virginia last week to dip to 3-4 in ACC play. They have covered in only one of their last five games.

Riley Leonard has not played since October 28th due to injury and is questionable. Backup QB Henry Belin IV is also injured. Grayson Loftis will get the start if Leonard can’t go. The freshman QB posted 189 yards against the Tar Heels and was better last week, recording 270 passing yards. Loftis has 575 passing yards and a 6:2 TD to INT ratio on the year.

Duke has two dangerous RBs including Jordan Waters. The senior RB has surpassed 100 rushing yards in three games this season and has 722 rushing yards. Jacquez Moore has accumulated 591 yards. The receiving group is led by Jordan Moore. The junior WR is in a groove, making 15 receptions in his last two games, and has registered 688 receiving yards. The Duke offense has struggled since the injury to Leonard and ranks 90th in total yards per game.

The first-career touchdown for @mehkiwall3! �� pic.twitter.com/zph77eSiJu

— Duke Football (@DukeFOOTBALL) November 21, 2023

The Blue Devils' defense is keeping the team in games. They held NC State to only three points in October and Louisville to just 23 points late last month. The group had some trouble last week, squandering 448 total yards against a poor Virginia offense. The pass defense contains opponents, marking 34th while the rush defense is 75th.

Duke is averaging 27.5 points on the season, ranking them 70th. They are holding opponents to only 19.8 points, good for 28th in the country.

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The Pittsburgh Panthers head into this last bout with confidence after earning a home win against Boston College last week. The Duke Blue Devils continue to struggle, dropping four of their last five games due primarily to a slumping offense.

Furthermore, Pittsburgh has a respectable defense that will keep them in this game. Duke will likely be without #1 QB Riley Leonard again in this bout. The Duke backup is questionable and if he does not play, it will be a freshman QB in Grayson Loftis. Also, Pittsburgh RB Rodney Hammond just rushed for 145 yards last week and is averaging a solid five yards per rush on the season. He should have another big game against a Blue Devils defense that is squandering an average of 155 rushing yards per game, pegging them 75th.

Prediction: Pittsburgh Panthers +6.5

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I expect points to be at a premium considering the offense on these squads. Pittsburgh continues to slump, averaging a measly 13.4 points in their last five games. This includes just 17 points against Wake Forest and 13 points against Syracuse. The Blue Devils have an outstanding defense and have conceded 21 or fewer points in every home game.

In addition, as mentioned, Duke isn’t scoring many points, netting 24 or fewer points in four of their last six games. They run a lot, running in 55% of their offensive plays, and take plenty of time off the clock as a result. The Panthers' defense has been solid recently, allowing 24 or fewer points in four of their last six bouts after conceding just 16 last week.

Prediction: Under 42.5

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