College Football Playoff projections after Week 4: Florida State, Texas on the move

Week 4 was a massive one in college football. As a result, there are big movers in my projections for the College Football Playoff.

How much of a difference did Saturday’s games make on the CFP picture? Well, let’s take a look.

Here’s how the model works: I have developed a season simulator that produces odds for winning the national title, making the College Football Playoff, and winning conference and division titles. After every simulation is complete, I have developed a model that selects playoff teams. The playoff selection model is quite simple and very similar, in my opinion, to the committee’s selection process in that it creates a “resume strength rating,” derived from prior resume strength ratings, past playoff rankings and playoff selections for each season.

Here are the top 25 national title contenders after Week 4, according to my model.

Projected college football national title chances

What stands out after Week 4

Ohio State and Florida State came away with the biggest wins in college football over the weekend. Though, the change seen in their College Football Playoff odds was much different. Ohio State actually dropped by 1.8% while Florida State saw a 6.3% increase. Florida State has a much easier schedule remaining than Ohio State since Michigan and Penn State both continue to look impressive.

While Ohio State didn’t see much movement, Notre Dame did. The Fighting Irish saw their playoff odds drop from 12.9% heading into Week 4 to now just 4.6%. Notre Dame will likely need to win out to have a shot at making the College Football Playoff.

Texas didn’t have a big game against Baylor, but as a result of the victory and everything else that happened this weekend gave Texas a 9.8% increase to their playoff odds. The Big 12 continues to look less and less impressive as each week goes by.