College Football Predictions: Ohio vs. San Diego State odds, picks
The San Diego State Aztecs host the Ohio Bobcats at Snapdragon Stadium for a Week 0 college football matchup on Saturday, August 26.
If I were a gambling man (I am), I would be betting on the Bobcats heavily in this game (I will be).
Read on for my Ohio vs. San Diego State prediction and pick.
Ohio vs. San Diego State prediction: Analysis
I expect the Ohio offense to explode in 2023.
Everything came together for Ohio last season behind quarterback Kurtis Rourke – the little brother of Ohio legend Nathan Rourke.
Kurtis finished second nationally in Pro Football Focus’s passing grades (only behind Drake Maye), finishing the season with 3,200 yards and 25 touchdowns while throwing only four picks. He won MAC Player of the Year honors for his efforts.
Surrounding Rourke was running back Sieh Bangura, who earned MAC Freshman of the Year honors after recording 1,304 scrimmage yards and 15 touchdowns, and wide receiver Sam Wiglusz, who earned first-team All-MAC honors thanks to his 877 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Tim Albin won MAC Coach of the Year, and the Bobcats won 10 games.
If Rourke hadn’t had a season-ending knee injury late last season, the Bobcats likely beat Toledo in the MAC Championship game.
Expectations are similarly high this season. Rourke, Bangura and Wiglusz all return, and Rourke is confirmed as healthy and starting for Week 0.
If you include those three All-MAC players, the Bobcats return nine starters on the offensive side of the ball. Ohio ranks top-20 nationally in SP+’s returning offensive production numbers.
The offensive line was ravaged by injuries last year, so I expect that unit to improve with better health. They only need to replace their right guard, and several experienced upperclassmen are ready to step into bigger and better roles.
Ohio’s offense should explode in 2023, and I think they’ll catch San Diego State in a bad spot in Week 0.
SDSU lost five starters on the defensive side of the ball, including their top three tacklers and top four tackles-for-loss leaders. They lost three key defensive linemen and three key linebackers.
Defensive coordinator Kurt Mattix is one of the best in the business, but whipping this unit into shape should take time. Given all the fresh faces on the defense, I don’t expect the Aztecs to be 100% on Day 1, and I expect Rourke to take full advantage.
Ohio’s defense projects as poor. But they have only one task in Week 0, containing Jalen Mayden.
Mayden is a converted safety who is now QB1 in San Diego. He’s a dual-threat lefty who can create offense by himself, but he’s a wildcard in the pocket – he had only five Big Time Throws to 11 Turnover Worthy Plays last year.
The Aztecs have quality skill position players in the backfield and out wide, but we can’t trust Mayden to deliver the ball to his playmakers consistently.
SDSU is also working with a new offensive coordinator, Ryan Lindley. He was a quarterbacks coach here last season, but I don’t think this offense will seamlessly transition, especially as they try and implement a more pass-heavy approach.
Throw in a questionable offensive line (the Aztecs were 126th in Line Yards, 129th in Stuff rate, and 92nd in Sack rate last season), and I have severe concerns about SDSU’s ability to push the ball downfield, even against a weaker defense.
Meanwhile, Ohio should be able to drop 30 without a sweat.
I’m betting Mayden and the Aztecs won’t keep up.
Ohio vs. San Diego State pick
Ohio +3 (-120) at Caesars | Play to PK (-110)
Spread: Ohio +3 (-120) vs. San Diego State (+100)
Moneyline: Ohio (+120) vs. San Diego State (-140)
Total: Over 49 (-110) | Under 49 (-110)
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