Ohio vs. San Diego State Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 0: Can Aztecs Win Opener?

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24 August 2023

Ohio vs. San Diego State Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 0: Can Aztecs Win Opener?

In what should be the best game of Week 0, the San Diego State Aztecs are set to host the Ohio Bobcats Saturday evening inside Snapdragon Stadium. Read on for our Ohio vs. San Diego State prediction based on the best college football odds.

Week 0 is merely just the appetizer for the 2023 college football season. It's a chance for us to watch meaningful football again, without being overloaded by a full Saturday slate that features several different marquee matchups.

That said, you won't want to miss an evening matchup between San Diego State and Ohio. These two Group of Five programs are slated to square off in what should be the most interesting battle during the opening weekend. And that's evident by the fact the spread is just below a field goal at the best sports betting apps.

So, which team will pick up a key nonconference victory to begin the 2023 campaign?

Here is our best Ohio vs. San Diego State prediction and college football picks (odds via ourbest college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Ohio vs. San Diego State prediction: Week 0

San Diego State ML (-125 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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You can't just come into Snapdragon Stadium and expect to win. San Diego State is the play at these reduced moneyline odds, especially since we project the home team to be favored by north of a field goal.

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The market has steamed the Bobcats down to toss-up territory, particularly following Monday's news that quarterback Kurtis Rourke is expected to start this weekend. Rourke, who was limited to 11 games after an ACL injury in November, earned MAC Offensive Player of the Year honors last season after throwing for 21 touchdowns and 2,725 yards.

Rourke's return is huge for an Ohio team that went 10-4 last year and was picked first in the MAC East in this year's media poll. But this week's line movement pushed the spread too far, in my opinion, especially since it had been reported that Rourke was trending in the right direction at the conference's media day last month.

Bill Connelly's SP+ projects a 7.7 margin in favor of the Aztecs, giving them a 67% chance of victory in Week 0. Tyler Shoemaker's TSI makes the spread 6.4, with a 67.9% chance of SDSU winning outright. My power ratings give slightly more respect to Ohio, but the line is still priced closer to the opening spread.

Despite bringing back only six defensive starters, we can count on the Aztecs to continue being elite on that end. They have allowed under 21 points per game in each of the last four seasons, ranking in the top 30 in success rate, havoc created, and EPA per play last year.

San Diego State's offense could even show some improvement with quarterback Jalen Mayden back under center. Mayden threw for 2,030 yards and 12 touchdowns after starting the year as a safety.

This should be an entertaining matchup and could potentially come down to the very end. But I'm counting on the Aztecs to prevail for a Week 0 victory.

Ohio vs. San Diego State best odds

When it was announced that Rourke would start, the market made one final push on the spread to get it below a field goal. This opened an opportunity to buy a discounted moneyline price on the Aztecs to win outright, which I certainly took advantage of with a -125 ticket via FanDuel on Monday afternoon.

As of this writing, Caesars is the only shop still offering San Diego State's moneyline odds at -125. This might be the best price among the best sportsbooks, but we'd be willing to play SDSU on the moneyline at -135 or better.

Ohio vs. San Diego State odds

With lines being available for much of the summer, we have seen plenty of movement on this Ohio-SDSU matchup.

The spread was trading as high as 4.5 earlier in the offseason, but has been pushed down to 2.5 across our best sports betting sites. The line was sitting at 3 and 3.5 before Rourke was announced as the starter for Saturday's matchup.

As for the total, the line opened at 48.5 and touched as high as 50.5 throughout the offseason. The consensus price is now sitting at 49, which is right in like with our projection.