College football predictions: Picks, tips for Week 8
Week 8 of college football has several marquee matchups on deck, with undefeated Penn State and Ohio State leading the way.
While this Big Ten showdown is the consensus game of the week, the SEC has an interesting slate highlighted by Tennessee and Alabama in which the Crimson Tide will be out for revenge after the Vols defeated them for the first time in 15 years.
I’ve picked out a bet I like in six matchups this week with odds from Caesars Sportsbook like I’ve done every week of the season, and LSU and Tulane are both on this week’s card.
(Lines from Caesars Sportsbook, official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com, as of Friday, Oct. 20)
Game of the Week
No. 7 Penn State at No. 3 Ohio State
Line: Penn State (+4.5, +152) at Ohio State (-180), 45.5 O/U
Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Oct. 21 at 11 a.m. (FOX)
Analysis: Penn State hasn’t faired too well in this series straight up, but they usually keep things close having covered the spread in six of their past seven meetings against Ohio State.
The Nittany Lions are riding high having started 6-0 and covering the spread in all six matchups, but this will be by far their toughest test of the season against a Buckeyes offense that hasn’t missed a beat.
While the Buckeyes are also 6-0, the Nittany Lions seem to be the sharper team right now and have the talent needed to pull the outright upset, but I’ll play it safe and take the points instead.
The pick: Penn State +4.5
SEC best bets
No. 17 Tennessee at No. 11 Alabama
Line: Tennessee (+9.5, +260) at Alabama (-335), 48 O/U
Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Oct. 21 at 2:30 p.m. (CBS)
Analysis: Tennessee was able to shock the world last season against Alabama at home, but they’ll be heading to Tuscaloosa this time around against a hungry Crimson Tide team.
The Vols have played well in all of their games so far outside of a road loss to Florida, but the bottom line is that the Crimson Tide are still a powerful force, especially at home, and they've gotten off to a 4-0 start in SEC play.
It’s tempting to take the Vols with the points considering the Crimson Tide’s struggles on offense, but I like the under since both teams have leaned on their defenses more this season.
The pick: UNDER 48 points
No. 13 Ole Miss at Auburn
Line: Ole Miss (-6.5, -250) at Auburn (+205), 55 O/U
Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Oct. 21 at 6 p.m. (ESPN)
Analysis: Ole Miss is coming off a bye and gets a favorable matchup against a struggling Auburn team that has arguably the worst offense in the SEC.
The Rebels offense hasn’t always delivered this season, but they’ve been explosive enough to where they should be able to put up plenty of points in this matchup despite the Tigers defense being their strength.
Tigers coach Hugh Freeze will almost certainly have a few tricks up his sleeve in what’s a huge revenge game for him, but the talent gap here is simply too wide to bet against the Rebels.
The pick: Ole Miss -6.5
Army at No. 19 LSU
Line: Army (+32) at LSU, 59 O/U
Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Oct. 21 at 6:30 p.m. (SECN)
Analysis: LSU’s offense continued its dominance last week and should be able to put up a boatload of points once again in their first non-SEC matchup in over a month.
Army’s defense is better than a typical Group of Five due to their physical style of play, but that likely won’t matter against a Tigers offense that has averaged over 40 points a game against some tough SEC defenses.
While the Tigers might have a big enough lead to pull their starters early, their defense still has issues tackling to where the Black Knights should be able to score enough late points for the over to hit.
The pick: OVER 59
Other plays
North Texas at No. 23 Tulane
Line: North Texas (+20, +800) at Tulane (-1400), 63 O/U
Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Oct. 21 at 2:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Analysis: Tulane’s offense hasn’t been quite as sharp as last season, but their defense has taken a step forward and is currently the best in the AAC.
That sets the Green Wave up success this week considering that North Texas has thrived on offense against a soft schedule, so the Green Wave defense shouldn’t have much trouble containing them.
The Mean Green defense has been their weakness, so Michael Pratt and the Green Wave offense should be able to get enough of a rhythm going to cover the spread.
The pick: Tulane -20
No. 14 Utah at No. 18 USC
Line: Utah (+7, +205) at USC (-250), 53 O/U
Day/Time/TV: Saturday, Oct. 21 at 7 p.m. (FOX)
Analysis: USC finally paid their dues last week with Caleb Williams unable to save their dreadful defense again, but the good news for them is that Utah’s offense hasn’t been sharp.
Utes senior quarterback Cameron Rising hasn’t played all season and isn’t expected to return this week, but the Trojans defense has struggled to the point where it’s hard to feel confident in them holding a lead against anyone.
Williams should be able to work enough magic for the Trojans to find a way to win, but the Utes defense is still strong enough to where they'll likely keep the final score within a touchdown.
