College football predictions: Three plus-odds picks for conference championship weekend

The 2023 college football season will hit a crescendo this weekend with 10 conference title games beginning on Friday evening and culminating 24 hours later with the Big Ten Championship in prime time on Saturday night. 

This weekend is a gambling holiday and we’ll celebrate it by highlighting a few underdogs that are live to pull an upset (all odds via BetMGM). 

The Oregon bandwagon is packed to the gills.

Despite having a loss on their resume, the Ducks are considered by many to be one of the four best teams in the country and there is a movement to get them into the College Football Playoff if they win the Pac-12 Championship, no matter what else happens over the weekend. 

The market has seen nothing but Oregon money to this point in the week and that’s driven the spread to 9.5, despite the fact that Washington is undefeated and beat the Ducks in October. 

Nonetheless, sharp bettors will point to Oregon’s elite statistical portfolio and the fact that Washington has had a couple of fortunate wins en route to an 11-0 record to explain why they think the Ducks are the right side here. 

And while Oregon does boast terrific numbers on both sides of the ball, Washington is absolutely live in this spot and it feels as if the betting public is discounting what the Huskies have accomplished this season because everyone is caught up in the Oregon hype. 

I understand Oregon is the better team, but the Huskies have one of the best quarterbacks in the country and are one of a few teams that can match this Ducks’ offense score for score.

This number seems too high and I like the value on Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies to win outright. 

Weird stuff usually happens in the MAC, but this year was disappointingly chalky.

Toledo was the consensus preseason favorite to win the conference, while Miami (Ohio) was the third-favorite.

That’s not the MACtion we known and love, but perhaps the football gods are saving the chaos for the final game of the season. 

Toledo and Miami met back in October and it was the Rockets that got the victory, 21-17, but there’s reason to believe the RedHawks can get revenge on Saturday afternoon. 

Toledo’s offense has been terrific by Group of 5 standards all season, but a lot of their numbers are boosted because they feasted on poor defenses.

That’s not going to be the case on Saturday as Miami’s defensive metrics sparkle, especially against the pass.

The RedHawks’ secondary ranks inside the top-30 in both passing success rate allowed and PFF coverage grade, which gives them a decent shot at slowing down Dequan Finn. 

These odds flatter a Toledo team that’s escaped a number of close games this season. 

This is a tricky game to handicap since SMU will be without standout quarterback Preston Stone, but it’s the Mustangs’ defense that makes them worth a look in this spot. 

Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt has plenty of experience and led the Green Wave to another stellar season, but they’re going to need a monster performance from the veteran signal-caller because it’s unlikely they’ll have any success on the ground.

Tulane’s offense ranked 113th in rushing success rate this season, while the SMU defense ranked eighth in that same metric. 

That means Pratt will need to hit big plays to keep the chains moving, but that’s easier said than done against a terrific pass rush and a defense that ranked fourth in the country in passing success rate. 

SMU’s offense may struggle without Stone, but the defense is so good that it should take a lot of the pressure off No. 2 quarterback Kevin Jennings.