College Football Upset Picks, Predictions Week 10

sportsbookreview.com

31 October 2023

We went 2-1 with our college football upset selections in Week 9, hitting that mark for the third time in the last four weeks and returning 2.08 units of profit, and we are back with three more college football upset picks for Week 10 based on the best NCAAF odds.

The biggest upset on the Week 9 slate was Kansas's 38-33 victory over No. 6-ranked Oklahoma. It was the Jayhawks' first win against an AP top 10 team since 2008 and their first win in 25 consecutive home games against AP top 10 teams (their previous win was in 1984 against No. 2 Oklahoma). It was also Kansas's first win against a top-10 team when trailing entering the fourth quarter, as it had been 0-99-1 in the previous 100 such games.

Which historic upsets may be on tap for Week 10 in college football?

Here are our best college football upset picks for Week 10 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

College football upset picks: Week 10

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College football upset predictions

Northwestern vs. Iowa (+188 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Iowa was the target of one of our successful upset picks in Week 8 when hosting Minnesota, and we are going back to the well with expecting the Hawkeyes to be upset on the road against a Northwestern team coming off another big upset in Week 9.

The Wildcats improved to 4-1 at home with a 33-27 victory over Maryland as two-touchdown underdogs. Interim head coach David Braun has done a fantastic job keeping the team together after the Pat Fitzgerald scandal, as Northwestern's four wins match its win total from the last two seasons combined. The offense is suddenly not an issue, as the Wildcats have scored 31-plus points three times in the last seven games after failing to reach that plateau in 31 of their previous 33 games.

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If Iowa struggles to throw the football, it will have difficulty putting away inferior opponents. Quarterback Deacon Hill has completed fewer than 43% of his passes in each of his last four games while posting a 2-3 TD-INT ratio, failing to throw for more than 116 yards, and recording a 20.4 QBR or worse in every game in that stretch.

FanDuel offers the best price amongst our best sports betting apps, with all competitors in unison at +185 odds to back the Wildcats.

Georgia State vs. James Madison (+190 via FanDuel, DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The AP top 25 curse nearly bit JMU for the second consecutive season. When the Dukes received their first AP ranking in their first season at the FBS level last year, they promptly went on a three-game losing skid, and they nearly lost their first game as an AP-ranked team this year. However, James Madison held on to beat Old Dominion 30-27 in Week 9, a team it beat by 34 points last year.

Georgia State and JMU played one of the most thrilling games in Sun Belt play last year, as the Dukes won 42-40 at home. JMU rallied from a 20-point halftime deficit in that game, so the Panthers have a recipe to attack a stout Dukes defense that entered last week with the most sacks (34) of any team in the country. The Panthers rank in the top 40 nationally and second in the Sun Belt in Havoc allowed, so they are equipped to combat James Madison's pressure.

JMU is riding an 11-game winning streak but entered last week scoring touchdowns on fewer than 50% of its red zone possessions (118th in FBS). That is something that Georgia State, who averages 25.0 points per game in conference play, can use as a path to an upset.

FanDuel and DraftKings offer better value than the +185 odds found at our other best sports betting sites.

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Mississippi State vs. Kentucky (+136 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Mississippi State has won six consecutive games in Starkville against Kentucky by an average of 17.7 points per game, with each of the previous four being decided by 15-plus points. The Bulldogs have managed just 20 points in their last two conference games but still split those two decisions.

Mississippi State's offensive ceiling is much lower with Mike Wright under center, despite the backup quarterback already being the team's second-leading rusher in limited action. However, this would become a more confident four-star play if Will Rogers returns from a two-game absence as he has dealt with an arm injury. Rogers had a 10-4 TD-INT ratio and a 138.7 passer rating in his starts, making Mississippi State's offense much more explosive.

No matter who is under center, we trust a Bulldogs defense to contain Kentucky running back Ray Davis, the SEC's leading rusher (823 yards), as they rank 44th in Line Yards and held two of their last three conference opponents without a 70-yard rusher.

The best price for Bulldogs backers is at FanDuel, as the other sites with the best sportsbook promos offer +135 odds or shorter.

College football upset picks made 10/30/2023 at 4:08 p.m. ET.