College Football Upset Picks, Predictions Week 9

sportsbookreview.com

24 October 2023

Another 2-1 week with our college football upsets article returned +1.65 units in profit, and we are back with three more college football upset picks for Week 9 based on the best NCAAF odds.

In Week 8, Virginia achieved the most significant upset by securing a 31-27 victory on the road against No. 10 North Carolina. This victory marked the first time in the program's history that the Cavaliers won against a Top 10 team on the road. Additionally, it was the first instance since 2009 that a team with a record of 1-5 or worse defeated an AP Top 10 team. Considering Virginia was a 24-point underdog, this ranks as the second-largest ACC upset in the past 30 years.

Might we witness any similarly historic upsets in Week 9 of college football?

Here are our best college football upset picks for Week 9 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

College football upset picks: Week 9

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College football upset predictions

Coastal Carolina vs. Marshall (+158 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Coastal Carolina beat Marshall as 2.5-point road underdogs last year (24-13), and we disagree with the Chanticleers being even bigger home underdogs this season.

This is only a play if Chanticleers quarterback Grayson McCall is under center this week, as he is in concussion protocol after taking a hard hit to the head in the fourth quarter of last week’s win over Arkansas State. McCall’s availability is enough to swing this line drastically, as he is a three-time Sun Belt Player of the Year and one of 146 FBS quarterbacks to throw for 10,000-plus yards in their career.

Unfortunately, as of Thursday morning, it looks like McCall is doubtful to play in Week 9. He is reportedly seeing a specialist about his head injury despite clearing concussion protocols, and it's expected he'll miss at least Week 9.

Turnovers have plagued Marshall all season (-3 turnover margin), and those turnovers are a big reason why the Thundering Herd defense ranks 115th in Field Position Average Start.

If McCall is cleared, this line should move closer to a pick’em, so we are taking advantage of the +158 odds via FanDuel, which is excellent value compared to BetRivers, which is on the low end at +145 odds.

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Kentucky vs. Tennessee (+130 via DraftKings, Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Tennessee has had egregious home/road splits this season, winning its five home games by a combined 112 points (including a +28 point differential in SEC play) and losing its two road games by a combined 27 points. The Volunteers squandered their chance at their first win at Alabama in 20 years in Week 8, as the Crimson Tide out-scored them 27-0 in the second half of a 34-20 defeat.

Tennessee produced 151 more yards than Alabama in the first quarter, but the Crimson Tide eventually wore down the Volunteers front, as running back Jase McClellan ran for a season-high 115 yards (he had eclipsed 83 yards in just one other game this year). That bodes well for Kentucky’s chances of offensive success with running back Ray Davis, who is second in the conference in rushing yards (781) and rushing touchdowns (eight) and leads the SEC with a 7.0 yards per carry average.

DraftKings and Caesars are our go-to shops, as they provide great value compared to the +112 odds found at BetRivers.

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Arizona vs. Oregon State (+150 via DraftKings, Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Oregon State laying only 3.5 points on the road against Arizona certainly qualifies as a fishy line, and we are taking the bait by eschewing the points and backing the Wildcats to pull a top-11 upset.

The Wildcats have won three of the previous five meetings with the Beavers since 2015. Arizona has been playing great football lately, even if the wins and losses do not necessarily reflect that. It lost two games to two of the Pac-12’s preseason contenders (Washington and USC) by a combined nine points and just dismantled a then No. 19-ranked Washington State team 44-6 on the road in its last game. The Wildcats out-gained the Cougars 516-234, and that is the sort of win that the program can use as a springboard for future success while continuing to build quarterback Noah Fifita’s confidence in what was his third straight start.

This is a three-star play, as Oregon State has allowed 95 points in three road games this year and was gashed for 40 points and 448 total yards by a California team that ranks bottom-four in the Pac-12 in total offense and scoring. FanDuel has moneyline odds as low as +138 to back the Wildcats, so we are jumping on the great value at DraftKings and Caesars early in case sharp action drives the line down closer to kickoff.

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College football upset picks made 10/23/2023 at 6:39 a.m. ET.