College Football Week 1 odds, picks: Florida State vs. LSU prediction

I love LSU this season, but I think the Tigers have been overvalued in the early betting markets.

LSU benefitted from a few lucky bounces last season, beating Auburn, Alabama and Arkansas by seven combined points.

The Tigers played in the SEC championship game despite averaging minus-8 net yards per game in conference play.

Though LSU boasts a talented, experienced roster filled with returning starters, this unit played worse than its record last season.

As a result, I’m slightly lower on them than the market is.

For example, our Action Network team projects Florida State as a 2-point neutral field favorite against LSU on Sunday, while the market sits closer to the Tigers -2.

And because the game being played in Orlando, Fla., I’d give a slight home-field edge to the Seminoles.

The Tigers are legitimate national title contenders, but I have my doubts about them in Week 1.

For example, LSU’s secondary is its weakest unit.

Only one starting defensive back from the 2022 squad is back, and the Tigers are trying to replace that production with five transfers.

The key for Florida State will be establishing the run, making linebacker Harold Perkins and LSU’s talented front focus solely on stopping running back Trey Benson and quarterback Jordan Travis at the line of scrimmage.

Suppose Florida State gets a push in the run game.

In that case, coach Mike Norvell can dial up whatever he wants in the intermediate-to-deep passing game, putting pressure on an inexperienced secondary trying to build chemistry.

I expect the Seminoles to have success on the ground. Florida State boasts 206 career FBS starts on the offensive line, making this unit one of the most experienced in college football history.

The Seminoles were fourth nationally in Rush Predicted Points Added (PPA) per play and 11th in Rush Success Rate last year, and I project no drop-off in production this season.

It’s also worth mentioning that LSU defensive tackle Maason Smith will be serving a one-game suspension for selling autographs in 2021.

That downgrades the Tigers’ rush defense a tad.

And it’s not as if the LSU rush defense was phenomenal last season, anyway, ranking about the national average in Rush PPA per play and Success Rate Allowed.

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Altogether, it will be hard for LSU to stop Florida State.

I do expect LSU to move the ball. The Tigers were one of the best rushing teams in college football last season, utilizing an inside-zone scheme powered by quarterback Jayden Daniels (1,109 yards, 11 scores on the ground) and a deep running backs room.

I am worried about Florida State’s defense, which ranked sub-90 nationally in PPA per rush and Rush Success Rate allowed. I expect improvement from this more experienced front seven.

However, the Seminoles’ rush defense was fine in conference play (3.7 yards per rush allowed), and nine starters return for this season, headlined by potential All-ACC lineman Jared Verse (nine sacks, eight tackles for loss last year) and 2022 ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year Patrick Payton.

Meanwhile, Florida State’s pass defense was suffocating at times last season, allowing just 165 passing yards per game (fourth-lowest nationally).

Replacing safety Jammie Robinson will be tough, but this year’s secondary is deep and experienced.

LSU could be forced into a one-dimensional rush attack, and it’s hard to win college football games that way.

Ultimately, I think Florida State should be a favorite here.

The Seminoles have key schematic advantages that should result in explosive offensive plays and plenty of scores — key schematic advantages the Tigers lack.

I think Florida State will win outright, so I’m happy to grab the points.

The pick: Florida State +2 (Caesars Sportsbook)