LSU vs. Alabama prediction: College football Week 10 picks, odds

Behind this deep ball, Alabama is fifth nationally in Pass Explosiveness and first nationally in Passing Downs Explosiveness. Milroe’s downfield passing has salvaged the Alabama offense, and it’s arguably the main reason the Crimson Tide are undefeated in SEC play. 

Unfortunately for LSU, the secondary is where the Tigers are most vulnerable. 

All the Tigers do is give up big passing plays. They rank 118th in Passing Explosiveness allowed and 128th in Passing Downs Explosiveness allowed. They’re 89th in Pro Football Focus’s Coverage grades. 

While LSU handled lame-duck passing attacks like Grambling State, Mississippi State, Auburn and Army, it also allowed 1,500 passing yards to Florida State, Arkansas, Ole Miss and Missouri. The Rebels and Seminoles each hit eight Explosive passing plays against the Tigers. 

Based on that alone, Alabama already has a considerable advantage. The Tide are running their biggest strength — an explosive passing attack — into LSU’s biggest weakness, which is a useless secondary. 

Not to mention that LSU’s two starting cornerbacks, Duce Chestnut and Zy Alexander, are unavailable for this game. That could be a final blow to an already struggling unit.

To be fair, nobody can stop Jayden Daniels. The Tigers quarterback has been near-perfect this season, and the Tigers’ offense is the best nationally by most advanced metrics.

That said, Alabama has a shot at slowing Daniels down.

The defense has been rock-solid, especially on shorter plays, ranking top-10 nationally in Success Rate allowed and Standard Downs Success Rate allowed. 

Cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry is among the nation’s most devastating on-ball defenders. Safety Caleb Downs has amassed 49 tackles this year, and linebacker Deontae Lawson has a whopping 35 run stops. Don’t forget about lineman Justin Eboigbe or linebacker Trezmen Marshall, who both have PFF Tackling grades over 85.

These guys get up in your face and bear down on you. 

Daniels is an elite downfield passer, but LSU mostly lives in Standard Downs. The Tigers are the opposite of the Tide, ranking second in Standard Downs Success Rate (59%) and third in percentage of plays in Standard Downs (76%). 

LSU’s game plan is to stay ahead of schedule, using dual-threat and RPO elements behind the ever-dangerous Daniels, who has amassed over 2,500 passing yards and 500 rushing yards across eight games this season. 

The key for Alabama is stepping up at the point of attack and keeping Daniels and the Tigers off schedule and off balance. 

If the Tide do that, which they’ve done against similarly dynamic opponents (ex. holding Ole Miss to 10 points), they can get a few stops and win this game.

The key to accomplishing that might be keeping Daniels literally off balance. Daniels struggles outside of a clean pocket, with his completion percentage dropping 20% (from 75% to 55.9%) and his EPA per Pass dropping almost an entire point (from 0.60 to -0.29) when under pressure. 

Alabama ranks top-40 nationally in Havoc generated, top-15 in pressure rate and top-five in sack rate. Edge rushers Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell have a combined 60 pressures this year, and both have a PFF Pressure grade over 80. The duo has turned those pressures into 39 hurries and 17 sacks. 

If the Tide get some pressure on Daniels, the Heisman contender could struggle for the first time all season. 

I like this schematic matchup for the Tide, and I think it’s a solid situational spot. Both teams are coming off bye weeks, but the Tigers could be sleepwalking after they crushed Army 62-0 in Week 8. 

Meanwhile, also during Week 8, Saban’s Tide beat Tennessee by two touchdowns, avenging their three-point loss to the Vols from last season. 

This week, Saban’s Tide has a shot at avenging another close loss, and I’m betting they comfortably beat LSU after losing by one point last year. 

Betting on College Football?

Our Action Network power ratings project Alabama as a five-point home favorite, and ESPN’s SP+ favorites project Saban’s squad as a six-point home favorite. 

The schematic, statistical and situational angles point toward Saban in Week 10.

I am, too. I’ll bet the Crimson Tide at anything better than -3.5. 

LSU vs. Alabama Pick

Alabama -3 (-110) | Play to -3.5 (-110)