College football Week 1 preview, teams to watch, Heisman watch
Ohio State remains as recession-proof as any program in college football, a team that considers going 11-2 a down year.
Michigan is coming off back-to-back playoff berths and has a good chunk of last season’s semifinalists back.
And Penn State? Well, the third prong of the Big Ten East’s triumvirate is still waiting for its playoff breakthrough but has just enough of last season’s talent remaining in the fold to be one of the country’s most interesting teams.
The Nittany Lions bounced back from a pair of disappointing seasons — a 4-5 run during the 2020 pandemic season that can be shrugged off, and a 7-6 slog in 2021 that cannot — to go 11-2 last fall. Penn State got gashed in the second half by Michigan and played Ohio State tight before J.T. Tuimoloau turned in one of the season’s best defensive performances to help the Buckeyes rally and win.
Otherwise, it dispatched a bunch of unranked foes, usually in thorough fashion, and turned back Utah in the Rose Bowl. It was an improvement, but not an all-timer of a season.
Which brings things around to 2023 as the Nittany Lions head into James Franklin’s 10th season in charge. They have won more than twice as many as they’ve lost under Franklin (78-36), put up four 11-win seasons and claimed a Big Ten title (2016).
So things haven’t been bad. They just haven’t been as good by any measure as Ohio State, and not at the level of Michigan the past two years. Yet Penn State has a deep and experienced offensive line. And two sophomore running backs (Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen) who combined for more than 1,900 yards and 22 touchdowns last season. And a loaded, stingy defense.
Sophomore Drew Allar is set to take over at quarterback for the graduated Sean Clifford, the school’s career passing leader. He probably needs to be good, not great. But the Nittany Lions sure wouldn’t mind if he was great.
Beating West Virginia in Saturday night’s season opener won’t dictate whether this can be a special season in Happy Valley. Frankly, a 6-0 start wouldn’t, either. The bellwether games are Oct. 21 (at Ohio State) and Nov. 11 (at home against Michigan). Win one or both, and a Big Ten title (or more) could be in play. Lose both, and replicating last season is the best option available.
It’s a harsh way to look at things, but it isn’t entirely unreasonable. And it makes watching how Penn State handles everything leading up to those opportunities even more intriguing. The Nittany Lions earned respect for handling their business last season. They’ll need to do more of the same in their first six games to have a chance to truly take the next step this fall.
It’s rarely a straight line
It happens just about every year: A team coming off a breakout season emerges as a consensus favorite to take that next step, maybe even emerging as a national title contender. A lot of the time, that team is Texas A&M.
This time, though, it’s Aggies Coach Jimbo Fisher’s former school attracting attention. And heavens knows Florida State covers a good chunk of the checklist needed for doing so.
It was a longtime power in the 1980s and 1990s that waned and waxed and then waned again. It brings back much of its production on both sides of the ball. It doubled its victory total from five to 10 last season. It has unquestionably been on the right track in its second and third seasons under Mike Norvell.
So here’s a prediction to tuck away: Florida State will be better in 2023 … and end up with basically the same number of victories. In some ways, that’s the sort of season that can be as frustrating as any.
There’s an uncomfortable answer to the question of who, exactly, Florida State beat last season. The Seminoles picked off LSU, 24-23, in New Orleans on Labor Day weekend in a deliriously silly game capped by a blocked extra point attempt with no time remaining. At the time, it looked like two teams that were improved but a season away from truly making noise. To the immense credit of both rosters, it was a pairing of eventual 10-win teams.
And beyond that? Florida State upended two other teams destined for winning seasons. One was 8-5 Louisville, which was so good its coach fled to Cincinnati in what looked like a shrewd attempt to flee the posse before it fully formed. The other was 7-6 Syracuse, which was right in the middle of a 1-6 tailspin to close the season when the Seminoles pounded them, 38-3.
(Let’s preemptively dispense with the worst counterargument: Yes, Florida State beat Oklahoma in a bowl game. By a field goal. In Orlando. And it was the Sooners’ worst team of the 21st century. There are cases to be made in favor of the Seminoles making a push for a playoff berth this season. None of them involve citing that game).
So it wasn’t the gaudiest 10-3 season, but no one in Tallahassee was (or should have been) complaining given the forgettable five seasons that preceded it. Nonetheless, this campaign features another matchup with LSU, plus trips to Clemson, Pitt and Wake Forest. That doesn’t even factor in a visit to Florida to end the regular season.
Florida State is trending in the right direction. If it uses geography (plus the relative weakness of the ACC’s non-Clemson precincts) to its advantage as it historically has, it could be in for a fine string of top-10 teams and league title contenders. But bottom-line progress can be uneven, and no one should be stunned if Sunday marks the start of the Seminoles’ march to the same record as last season.
Five with the most at stake
A look at teams with the chance to prove plenty in Week 1.
1a. Florida State and 1b. LSU. Two schools with national titles under multiple head coaches in the past quarter-century meet Sunday night in Orlando in easily the week’s most noteworthy game. In all likelihood, the loser will have no wiggle room left in the chase for a berth in the final four-team playoff. That’s a lot at stake for Labor Day weekend.
2. Colorado. Few people in any sport over the past 35 years have been more gifted at attracting and maintaining attention than Deion Sanders, so the first-year Buffaloes coach probably isn’t going to be ignored even if his Colorado debut is … well, Colorado-like. But as the saying goes, there’s only one chance to make a first impression, and Sanders’s first game in charge in Boulder provides a heck of an opportunity as the Buffs visit TCU, a playoff finalist from a year ago.
3. Washington. Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies have high hopes in their Pac-12 swan song, but before league play arrives they have to deal with Boise State coming to Seattle to open the season. The Broncos of the Blue Turf haven’t been an elite program for a while, but they’re still coming off a 10-4 season and have played excellent defense in their first two seasons under Andy Avalos. This is a tricky game for Washington.
4. North Carolina. Two years ago, the Tar Heels had a quarterback with Heisman buzz (Sam Howell) and were hyped as a viable ACC contender. It all faded away with a 17-10 loss at Virginia Tech in the season opener, and the final result was a 6-7 season capped by a Duke’s Mayo Bowl loss to South Carolina. The Tar Heels again have a buzzy quarterback (Drake Maye), and while their team might not be hyped, another showdown with South Carolina is one of the weekend’s highlights. A loss would make it feel an awful lot like basketball season in Chapel Hill.
5. Northwestern. The Wildcats haven’t won a game in more than a year (Week Zero last season against Nebraska in Ireland), haven’t won on this continent since October 2021 (Rutgers) and saw their program’s noted stability fall apart in a hazing scandal over the summer that cost longtime coach Pat Fitzgerald his job. Northwestern opens the season at Rutgers on Sunday, and it’s an opportunity to learn just how much gumption the program has after two bad years (4-20 since 2021) and one tumultuous offseason.
A weekly look at the race for college football’s favorite stiff-arming statue, with a spotlight on the stars of Week Zero.
1. QB Caleb Williams, Southern California (278 yards, four TDs, zero INTs passing). A fine start to Williams’s attempt to join Archie Griffin as the only back-to-back Heisman winners. He completed 18 of 25 passes as the Trojans doubled up San José State, 56-28.
2. QB Sam Hartman, Notre Dame (251 yards, four TDs, zero INTs passing). The graduate transfer, Wake Forest’s career passing leader, carved up Navy’s defense in his debut with the Fighting Irish, which rolled to a 42-3 triumph in Dublin.
3. S De’Rickey Wright, Vanderbilt (three tackles, two INTs, one forced fumble). Wright may have been the most valuable player in Week Zero. He had a second-quarter interception to end a Hawaii red zone threat, broke up a fourth-down pass to end another possession in the red zone in the third quarter and then sealed the Commodores’ 35-28 victory with another interception with 1:43 to go.
4. WR Smoke Harris, Louisiana Tech (11 catches, 155 yards, one TD receiving). The sixth-year player, a first team all-Conference USA selection in 2022, got his final college season off to a stellar start by helping the Bulldogs get past league rival Florida International, 22-17.
5. QB Taisun Phommachanh, Massachusetts (192 yards passing, 96 yards, one TD rushing). Ranked as a top-five quarterback in the class of 2019 by multiple recruiting services, Phommachanh spent three years at Clemson and another at Georgia Tech. Now, the Bridgeport, Conn., native is back in New England and was an effective dual threat in the Minutemen’s 41-30 victory at New Mexico State.
6. WR Nick Nash, San José State (six catches, 89 yards, three TDs receiving). The Spartans’ starting quarterback for half of the 2021 season, Nash matched his receptions and tripled his touchdown total from five appearances last season.
