College Football Week 11 Parlays

Pick: South Carolina -14 (-108)

In Week 11, the 3-6 Gamecocks will take on the 2-8 Vanderbilt Commodores. The Gamecocks need to win out to become bowl-eligible, starting with the Commodores at home. 

The Gamecocks have a good matchup as the Commodores allow 36.2 points per game, which is 124th in the country (out of 133). South Carolina isn’t much better at 32.4 (110th), but their offense averages 24.3 with Spencer Rattler under center compared to Vanderbilt’s 21.9. 

This season, Rattler completes 68.6% of his passes for 2,513 yards (8.1 yards per attempt), 14 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He’s had some stellar games this season, including Week 2 against Furman, Week 4 against Mississippi State, Week 10 against Jacksonville State, and Georgia; he held his own, throwing for 256 yards and one touchdown. 

The Gamecocks defense has allowed 14 touchdowns in coverage, has seven interceptions, 20 pass breakups, and allows 68.1% of targets to come down as receptions. They’re allowing 12.9 yards per catch.

Thankfully, they’re not facing much of a passing threat with Commodores quarterback Ken Seals. This season, he’s completing less than 60% of his passes for 1,016 yards, nine touchdowns, and four interceptions. He’s thrown for just 182 yards in his last two games. Seals did have a few good passing games before his recent slump, and South Carolina’s defense is a good candidate for it, but we’re not going to trust Seals here. 

The rushing attack for Vanderbilt averages 4.6 yards per carry and has 1,088 yards and nine scores. 

Rattler was once thought of as a future first-round pick. 

Look for him, with bowl game eligibility on the line, to beat up on this coverage unit that’s allowed 19 touchdowns and a 72% reception rate. 

Gamecocks win this one, 36-21.

Pick: Washington -9.5 (-112)

The talk of this matchup here will be Utah’s defense against the Huskies offense. That’s what will determine this game. 

On offense, the Huskies average 41.7 points, 383.1 passing yards, and 126 rushing yards per game. Their point total is inside the top three in college football, and their passing yards are the most in the country. 

Utah’s defense allows 17 points, 218 passing yards, and 83.8 rushing yards per game. The points and rushing yardage totals are inside the top 10 in the country. 

However, we can’t overlook the Huskies defense here. It’s not as strong as Utah’s, but they rank 44th in the country, allowing 23 points per game. 

Offensively, Utah is 77th in points at 24.3. 

This game is taking place in Washington, so there’s that added advantage there, too. 

There’s been just one game where the Huskies scoring was less than usual—against Arizona State. They scored just 15 points. Michael Penix Jr. still had 275 yards in that game.

With Washington, it’s somewhat like other Pac-12 teams in that they score a lot of points and allow a fair amount, but they just score so much more that teams can’t compete. 

Bryson Barnes has filled in wonderfully this season for Utah, but his 930 passing yards, 58.5% completion rate, 6.3 yards per attempt, and eight touchdowns just won’t be able to compete with Penix here. 

Penix will find a way to score here as Utah’s rushing attack looks to keep him off the field and keep the game close. 

Huskies win this game 33-17.

Pick: Ole Miss +10.5 (-109)

At 8-1, Ole Miss is headed to take on the 9-0 Georgia Bulldogs. This season, the Rebels are 6-2-1 against the spread, while the Bulldogs are the inverse of that at 2-6-1. 

Let’s look at the offenses and defenses of both teams on a per-game basis:

• Ole Miss Offense: 34.5 points (18th), 186 rushing yards (24th), 269.4 passing yards (37th).

• Georgia Offense: 38.3 points (9th), 168.6 rushing yards (46th), 316 passing yards (8th).

• Ole Miss Defense Allows: 24.9 points (50th), 142.8 rushing yards (59th), 239.3 passing yards (73rd).

• Georgia Defense Allows: 16.5 points (8th), 96 rushing yards (12th), 189 passing yards (19th).

Another factor to consider is that, according to Pro Football Focus, Ole Miss has played the 33rd toughest schedule this season, whereas Georgia’s is 81st. Both have excellent EPA per pass metrics, with 0.26 for Ole Miss and 0.31 for Georgia. 

Ole Miss is more of a rushing offense, going run on 50.1% of their plays. It’s 50/50, pretty much, but compared to many college offenses, that’s more run-heavy. For example, Georgia is a 57/43 team in favor of passing the ball. 

Passing the ball, Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart isn’t afraid to throw it downfield. He’s thrown 20+ yards downfield on 15% of his attempts this season. He’s thrown for 633 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions when tossing it downfield. 

Running with the ball, he has 467 yards and seven touchdowns. 

Georgia has only played one other ranked SEC team this season, last week against Missouri. They won 30-21, squeaking out the home victory. Missouri quarterback Brady Cook didn’t have a good game, completing just 14 of 29 passes for 212 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. 

Dart will easily be the best quarterback that Georgia has faced this season. Even at 10.5-point dogs, the Rebels aren’t a bad pick for an upset here.

We ultimately think Georgia pulls it off, but this will be a closer game than you’d think. 

Georgia escapes with a win, going 10-0, defeating Ole Miss 31-27.