NCAA football betting tips and odds: Preview for National Championship

THE College Football National Championship has been decided — the Michigan Wolverines and Washington Huskies will square off to crown college football royalty in a battle of two future NFL quarterbacks and two potential NFL head coaches. 

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• Michigan ML (-185) at DraftKings
• Over 55.5 (-110) at BetRivers
• Roman Wilson Any Time TD (+125) at DraftKings

Find our expert predictions and picks for the National Championship.

Here we go: The two top seeds from the College Football Playoff are in the championship game and the Wolverines are favored. Instead of the point spread, we’re taking them outright with a -185 line. 

Both teams average 36 points per game or more. However, the Wolverines have allowed just 10.2 points per game this season, the lowest in the nation. Meanwhile, Washington has allowed 24.1, which is 49th. 

Continuing with defense, Michigan allows 94.5 rushing yards and 150 passing yards per game. In comparison, Washington allows 137.1 rushing yards and more than 267 passing yards. That passing yard mark is 121st in the country. 

Of course, Michigan is facing an elite college quarterback here in Michael Penix Jr., who should be able to buck some of those trends, but against Alabama in the semi-final, they held Jalen Milroe to 116 passing yards and 63 rushing yards on 21 carries. 

A matchup to watch is Rome Odunze against Josh Wallace. Wallace has allowed 19 receptions on 38 targets for 185 yards and no touchdowns. 

We’re leaning toward the moneyline here as Washington has an elite offense, but Michigan’s defense will ultimately prevail. 

We’re taking the over in this game due to two factors—Washington’s defensive averages in the rushing and passing game and Washington’s offense. 

As mentioned above, the Wolverines have an elite defense. 

In the Big 10, Michigan played against competent quarterbacks like Drew Allar, Kyle McCord, and Taulia Tagovailoa. 

Allar is not a downfield passer whatsoever. Tagovailoa had 247 passing yards and two picks, and McCord had the best game by far with 271 passing yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. They put up 24 points in that game. 

The Wolverines haven’t faced a quarterback like Penix Jr. 

What do we mean by that?

This season, Penix Jr. has attempted 108 passes downfield of 20+ yards. That’s 21.4% of his attempts. He’s completed 46.3% of those for 1,743 yards, 16 touchdowns, and seven interceptions.

Those are absurd numbers. 

Penix Jr. leads all quarterbacks in this category in attempts, completions, and yards. He’s third in touchdowns, trailing only Jayden Daniels and Kaidon Salter. 

Washington’s offense will do enough here to hold up their end of the bargain. In contrast, Michigan’s offense takes advantage of Washington allowing nearly 140 rushing yards and more than 267 passing yards per game. 

Looking at a prop bet, Wilson scoring a touchdown is a great one to take a chance on. This season, Wilson has seen 63 targets. He’s caught 45 of them for 735 yards and 12 touchdowns, including two in his last three games. 

Coming out of the slot, he’ll face Mishael Powell. Powell has allowed 48 receptions on 65 targets for 432 yards and two touchdowns. He allowed one recently in the Pac-12 title game. 

Wilson has been targetted 20+ yards downfield on 27% of his targets. Against this squishy Wolverines defense, look for his flame-thrower of a quarterback J.J. McCarthy to hit him deep.

• How to watch: ESPN
• Date and time: Monday, January 8 at 7:30 PM ET
• Location: NRG Stadium

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The statistics used above are courtesy of Pro Football Focus.

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