NCAA football betting picks, odds and promos: Preview for Week 11

The US Sun

09 November 2023

NCAA football betting picks, odds and promos: Preview for Week 11

WE'RE just weeks away from the conclusion of the 2023 college football regular season.

We’re taking the side of three underdogs, including Ole Miss, Colorado, and USC.

Find our best bets and analysis for each game below.

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Ole Miss vs. Georgia - Ole Miss -10.5 (-112) at DraftKings
Colorado vs. Arizona - Colorado +10.5 (-109) at BetRivers
Oregon vs. USC - USC +15.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Read our expert predictions and picks for Week 10 of the NCAA football season.

This week, Georgia (9-0) will host Ole Miss (8-1).

To this point, Georgia hasn’t exactly played the most stout opponents, and Jaxson Dart and Ole Miss will easily be their most difficult opponents to date. Ole Miss averages 186 rushing yards and nearly 270 passing yards per game, and a big chunk of their rushing offense comes from Dart in addition to running back Quinshon Judkins.

The Bulldogs don’t allow a lot of passing yards, but Dart is a player who’s not afraid to throw it downfield. Looking at these attempts, 15% of them are on passes 20+ yards downfield, and there, he has 633 yards and two touchdowns.

Georgia escaped against Missouri while their quarterback, Brady Brook, had a less than stellar performance, with two interceptions.

Look for Ole Miss to keep pace enough offensively to stay inside this 10-point spread.

How to watch: ESPN
Date and time: Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 7:00 PM ET
Location: Sanford Stadium

The Colorado Buffaloes are just 1-5 in their last six games, but they’ve managed to hang around a bit, going 5-3-1 against the spread.

This week, they’re 10.5-point home underdogs against Arizona. It’s an interesting spread, but you can tell this is purely a product of the Colorado defense, as this offense averages 320.6 passing yards per game compared to Arizona’s 287. In terms of points scoring, Colorado and Arizona are pretty much on par, with Colorado averaging 30.7 and Arizona at 29.9.

The problem for Colorado is the defense. They allow 33.9 points, 300.7 passing yards, and 168.3 rushing yards per game. The passing yards are inside the top three throughout the country. The points allowed rank 115th.

Arizona does have a great offense, ranking 8th per Pro Football Focus. They have a 0.16 EPA per play on passing plays and 0.13 on rushes. To be fair, though, Colorado has played the 7th toughest schedule this season compared to Arizona’s 57th.

Against tougher defenses like Oregon State or UCLA, we’ve seen Colorado struggle as the pressure bears down on Shedeur Sanders, but Arizona’s pass rush is OK, but not at the level of Oregon State or UCLA.

Look for Colorado’s offense to do enough to hang in this one with a chance at a home upset.

How to watch: PACN
Date and time: Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 2:00 PM ET
Location: Folsom Field

Here, we have another Pac-12 matchup between Oregon and USC.

USC is a lot like Colorado because their defense simply cannot stop anyone. The Trojans allow 34.5 points per game, and that average is up to 45 over the last three weeks.

That said, USC scores the most points per game at 45.5, but Oregon is just behind them at 43.3.

Defensively, the Ducks allow just 17.1 points per game, but they haven’t faced many offenses like USC. The Ducks lone loss this season came against Washingotn, another top-ranked offense, scoring 41.7 points per game. Of course, the Huskies defense is far better than USC.

Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams is completing 68.7% of his passes for 2,972 yards, 28 touchdowns and four interceptions. He does have 16 turnover-worthy plays, as he’s a bit too aggressive and loose with the ball at times.

Still, this USC offense is too good to be 15.5-point underdogs, even if they’re on the road.

We think the Ducks still win this one, but USC keeps it within this margin.

Look for the Ducks to win this one, 40-33.