College Football Week 12 College Football Player Props Early Line Movement and Best Bets
TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State vs. Minnesota - Under 15.5 Rushing Attempts
Henderson’s biggest obstacle in college has been his ability to stay healthy, as a foot injury kept him out of the lineup against Michigan last year. TreVeyon had missed 3 weeks and tried to come back in Week 12 against Maryland, logging 11 carries for 19 yards before reinjuring himself and costing himself a spot in the lineup in the rivalry game. An undisclosed ailment sidelined Henderson against Penn State in October and cost him another month of games this year as well. In the first two games since his return, Henderson logged 24 carries for 162 yards against @Wisconsin and 22 carries for 128 yards at Rutgers. His usage leveled out last week, taking just 13 of 32 team carries for 63 yards before ceding work to Chip Trayanum and Xavier Johnson. With Ohio State currently lined as 27.5 point favorites over a flawed Minnesota team, I envision TreVeyon breaking a big play or two, then hitting the sidelines as his backups salt away the victory. With HC Ryan Day’s job potentially on the line if he loses to Michigan for a third straight year, I cannot imagine he will want to tempt fate with his star RB against the Gophers. With Henderson failing to clear 15 carries in 5-of-7 games this year, i’m taking his Under 15.5 Rush Attempts line.
Brendan Sorsby, QB, Indiana vs. Michigan State - Over 27.5 Pass attempts
I’ve been impressed by the late season surge we’ve seen from Indiana, giving Penn State a run for their money before upsetting Wisconsin and taking Illinois to limit in a thrilling 48-45 OT shootout. Key to that resurgence has been the play of Sorsby, who has completed 65% of his passes over the previous three games and is coming off his best game of the year against Illinoi where he threw for 289 yards and a 3-to-1 ratio against the Illini. His 13-fo-19, 269 yard, three touchdown showing against Penn State in late-October further underscores the growth Sorsby has made in recent weeks. Against a Michigan State pass defense that is allowing 8.0 yards per pass (101st in FBS), and with Sorsby throwing at least 31 passes in three of his last four games, I expect Indiana to ride their emerging redshirt freshman QB who easily clears this 27.5 Pass Attempts line on Underdog.
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J. Michael Sturdivant, WR, UCLA vs. USC - Under 3.5 Recs
Few programs have more rumors swirling about their coaching situation heading into this weekend than UCLA, with rumor & innuendo circulating that the Bruins are set to move on from Chip Kelly as they enter the shark infested waters of the Big Ten. The quarterback position has been a three-man weave of uninspiring play between Kent State transfer Collin Schlee, Ethan Garbers and five-star phenom Dante Moore who is also alleged to have designs on transferring. With UCLA’s passing effectiveness dissipating, Sturdivant’s production has followed suit as he failed to reach four receptions in seven of his last nine games. Game script-wise, USC’s now infamous defense ranks 132nd against the run out of 133 FBS teams. With HC Chip Kelly’s run-heavy tendencies, quarterback issues and a talented three-man backfield of Carson Steele/T.J. Harden/Keegan Jones, it makes sense for UCLA to unleash a ground assault on the Trojans’ beleaguered front seven. I’m taking Sturdivant’s Under 3.5 receptions.
Cody Schrader, RB, Missouri vs. Florida - Over 107.5 Rushing Yards
I cannot wait for this ALT line to drop, as Schrader has been an absolute monster since October, averaging 25.3 carries per game over his last four while clearing 107.5 rushing yards in four of his last five games. He was matchup-proof against Georgia logging 22 carries for 112 yards before ripping the previously respected Tennessee defense for 25 carries, 205 yards and 5.9 YPC in a 36-7 evisceration of the Vols. He has the good fortune of facing a Florida defense that has allowed at least 39 points in each of their last four games, in addition to getting torched for 329 rushing yards by LSU and 226 by a usually inept Arkansas offense over the last two weeks. I think we get a full 20+ carry load out of Missouri’s bell cow Schrader and will be on the lookout for his ALT lines as the week progresses in addition to the Over 107.5 Rushing Yards.
Notable Line Movement
DJ Uiagalelei, QB, Oregon State vs. Washington: 250.5 Passing Yards - Opened 240.5 Passing Yards
Nicholas Singleton, RB, Penn State vs. Rutgers: 63.5 Rushing Yards - Opened 69.5 Rushing Yards
Kai Monangai, RB, Rutgers at Penn State: 57.5 Rushing Yards - Opened 51.5 Rushing Yards
Kyle McCord, QB, Ohio State: 271.5 Passing Yards: Opened 284.5 Passing Yards
Daijun Edwards, RB, Georgia at Tennessee: 74.5 Rushing Yards - Opened 86.5 Rushing Yards
