College Football Week 4 Player Props Opening Lines Analysis and Best Bets

Jordan Houston, RB, NC State at Virginia - Under 40.5 Rushing Yards

You’re not going to find many Power Five running backs who underwhelm like Houston has retained their starting jobs. Over the previous two seasons he broke a mere 19% of tackle attempts for a measly 2.2 yards after contact average that ranked 215th out of 257 running backs with 70 or more carries in 2022. To put his pedestrian performance into perspective, Houston has failed to rush for 20+ yards on any of his 181 carries since the 2021 season, far and away the worst mark among all FBS Running Backs in that span.

This season, Houston crossed 40.5 yards against lowly UConn in their season opener, but has been a non-factor since logging just 12 carries for 39 yards in his last two games combined against Notre Dame and Virginia Military Institute. In fact last week when he rushed five times for 13 yards against VMI, three other NC State running backs had more carries while averaging over 5.0 YPC. OC Robert Anae generally only runs the ball with any volume when he’s trying to salt away a comfortable victory. While I think NC State is a better team than a retooling UVA, there are multiple comparable or outright superior options behind Houston, so i’m taking his Under 40.5 rushing yards prop.

Erick All, TE, Iowa at Penn State - Over 27.5 Receiving Yards

You’d be hard pressed to find a more decorated college-to-NFL tight end pipeline over the last decade than the run we’ve seen at Iowa. The latest in that rich lineage is TE Luke Lachey, who was the leading Hawkeyes’ receiver (10 recs/131 yards) at the time of his potentially season-ending injury against Western Michigan last Saturday. He was being deployed in a high-leverage manner, logging 23.3% of his reps out wide which is the second-highest wide rate of any tight end in FBS (Spann-Ford, #1 w/24%). With Lachey now out for the foreseeable future, the vital TE1 role is now in the very capable hands of Michigan transfer Erick All. He has already been a major factor in 12 personnel alignments, lining up in the slot a staggering 75% of the time while reeling in 7-of-9 targets for 81 yards and a touchdown. All has breezed past the 27.5 yards prop number in his last two games, and will now be the focal point of Iowa’s admittedly uninspiring passing attack going forward. TE Overs can be a delicate dance in the CFB props world, but the conditions are all in place for an Over 27.5 receiving yardage cash for All.

Markeise Irving, RB, Oregon vs. Colorado - Over 20.5 Receiving Yards

I managed to grab a piece of this at 17.5 before it got the bump up to 20.5, but still think it’s a play. A prolific receiving running back that i’ve gone to the well with multiple times dating back to the beginning to last season, Irving is a major weapon out of the backfield who gets plenty of scripted touches out of the backfield in new OC Willie Stein’s offense. SO far this season, Irving has reeled in 11-of-12 targets for 77 yards and a touchdown in three games. He recorded 7 receptions against Texas Tech in Week 2, but just two targets in each of Oregon’s other two blowout victories against Hawaii and Portland State. This week the Ducks take on a potent Colorado offense that will force OU to keep their foot on the gas all game, meaning a minimum of 3 targets for Irving. With Bucky having covered 20.5 receiving yards in 7 of his last 11 games, and the Ducks entering conference play, i’m backing the Over 20.5 receiving yards prop for Irving.

Jordan Watkins, WR, Ole Miss at Alabama - Over 48.5 Receiving Yards

Despite a QB controversy that raged from the spring through fall camp, Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart has led the Rebels averaging an eye-popping 52 points (4th in FBS) and 527 total yards per game (11th) through their non-conference matchups. With Tre Harris and UTSA transfer Zakariah Franklin on the mend, former UCF refugee Jordan Watkins has picked up the slack and established himself as a legitimate big play threat on the outside, catching 15-of-18 passes for 290 yards, 19.4 YPC and a touchdown through the first three games. He carries a scintillating 3.54 yards per route average into Ole Miss’ first big test of the season on the road at Alabama. Watkins’s 111/60/111 receiving yardage game log screams Over, but it should be cautioned that Harris and Franklin are getting closer to returning. I think we might see one of them this week, but Watkins will again be the team’s top deep threat in a game where Mississippi could conceivably find themselves playing catch up in the second half. I’m taking the Over 48.5 Receiving Yards for Jordan Watkins against a tough Alabama secondary.

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Beaux Collins, WR, Clemson vs. Florida State - Under 0.5 Touchdown Receptions

This line is wild to me as touchdowns are variable by nature, but even more so for wide receivers than running backs. Collins posted an impactful Week 2 against FCS Charleston Southern, going for seven recs, 137 yards and a touchdown. However he has only secured 6-of-9 passes for 60 yards and no touchdowns in Clemson’s two games against FBS programs. Further complicating matters is how Collins has two drops in 8 catchable targets for a troubling 13% drop rate. It should also be noted that Collins went 1-for-3 with a drop for just 10 receiving yards last week against FAU, with the Tigers’ wideout running just 18 routes vs. the Owls after running 72 routes combined over the first two games. It’s difficult to tell if this decrease in playing time will carry over to their pivotal ACC matchup against FSU, but I feel supremely confident in saying Collins cannot afford to drop a pass against the Noles, and will find his role in the offense reduced if he does. Florida State’s stout defense has the talent to impede Clemson’s passing attack, similar to how Duke was able to earlier this year. With several factors pointing to an Under, i’m taking this prop anywhere I can find it, and also like Collins’ Under 62.5 receiving yards given his recent struggles.