College Football Week 6 Player Props Opening Best Bets

Alan Bowman, Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech - Under 233.5 Passing Yards

If it weren’t for the immortal J.T. Daniels, then British Comedy Legend Alan Bowman (look it up) would be the most prolific retread QB of the 2023 college football season, going from Texas Tech-to-Michigan(lol)-to-Oklahoma State in an effort to replace Ole Miss’ current first-string clipboard holder, Spencer Sanders. He clearly picked the right P5 QB room to grad-transfer into, as OSU had no backup plan once Sanders departed which left Bowman as the lone QB with any meaningful CFB experience under his belt.

Bowman’s 2023 body of work is painfully on-brand, ranking 104th in PFF passing grade out of 111 FBS quarterbacks who have thrown 100 or more passes. While splitting time with neophytes Garret Rangel and Gunnar Gundy (of the Stillwater Gundy’s, naturally) Bowman’s 61.8 NFL Passer Rating is far lower than his more youthful counterparts Rangel (84.3) or Gundy (88.1) who have combined for 63 pass attempts.

In their last game against Iowa State, Bowman led the Cowboys to a 34-27 loss that wasn’t nearly that close, as is evidenced by their 11% win expectancy, with him throwing for 278 yards on an eye-popping 48 pass attempts with a 2-to-2 ratio and a 45.3 PFF passing grade. That performance is a noticeable outlier since it’s the first time Bowman played an entire game, as he was unceremoniously yanked the week prior after orchestrating a humiliating 33-7 defeat at the hands of South Alabama where he went 6-of-12 for 41 yards and one interception.

If Bowman starts out slow against a formidable Kansas State team and they fall behind early, there is zero reason to keep a departing senior in the lineup when you can get his understudies (one of whom shares the last name of the HC) some valuable reps. Plus they had a bye last week, which helps HC Gundy prep the youngsters for a potential takeover. Too many things can go wrong in this scenario, so UNDER 233.5 passing yards is the play here.

Jaiden Credle, MTSU - Under 40.5 Rushing Yards

From the Credle to the grave, this Wednesday night CUSA showcase pits a moribund MTSU offense that is averaging just 14.8 PPG (5th worst in FBS) and ranks 111th in team rushing performance. With Credle, he was barely present in the lineup for the first two games against SEC opponents, but broke out in a 35-14 Week 3 blowout of FCS Murray State by running for 132 yards on just 11 carries when starting RB Frank Peasant was injured and missed the game. With Peasant back playing his regular complement of snaps last week in a 31-10 beating at the hands of WKU (14 car, 76 yards, TD), Credle was sent back to his RB2 role, getting just seven carries for 39 yards. He primarily served as the passing downs back receiving 7 targets, catching five for just 20 yards with an unacceptable two drops.

This week the Blue Raiders play one of the G5’s most stout run defenses (9th in FBS) in Jacksonville State, who are allowing just 2.6 YPC and 113 rushing yards per game and are coached by the immortal Rich Rod. Credle will likely be used as the passing downs back again, but he’s not going to get the volume necessary to clear 40.5 rushing yards unless he breaks a big run on a ferocious JSU run defense. Maybe that happens, but the circumstances dictate an UNDER 40.5 rushing yards play.

Tayvion Robinson, Kentucky - Under 44.5 Receiving Yards

Reading the injury tea leaves on this play, as Robinson was banged up last week and now Barion Brown is battling an ailment as well. The slot receiver in OC Liam Cohen’s offense, Robinson has feasted on the soft underbelly of the UK schedule, going 5-for-5 for 86 yards and a TD in a 35-3 destruction of Akron and 6-for-6 for 136 yards and two touchdowns against FCS Eastern Kentucky. The last two weeks against Florida and Vandy he received four targets in each for 25 & 23 yards respectively. He’s still listed on the updated depth chart, but if he’s already limping and is now facing the vaunted Georgia defense, that’s a recipe for a speculative Under 44.5 receiving yards play. At worst we see this line drop to 36-39.5-ish once the books read this. But 44.5 is an Under on principle here.

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Chandler Morris, QB, TCU - Over 245.5 Passing Yards

A true gift from our CFB player Props Overlords, we owe these shameful gambling company muck-rakers thanks for listing Chandler Morris at 245.5 Passing Yards after he shattered that line in every single game this year. In fact his lowest passing yardage total was a 263-yard showing against hapless FCS program Nichols where he went 26-for-30 passing and was on ice midway through Q3 since they won by a resounding 41-7 margin.

I have no sympathy for these bloodsucking bookmakers, nor should you. Hammer this line and cackle as we do the “Pay Window Strut” like a real-life amalgamation of Vincent K. McMahon and Connor McGregor. Easiest OVER of the week, and a line we should beat to a pulp. In the immortal words of John Cleese - No Mercy! Hell I might film myself doing the strut this weekend after this bet hits. MAKE THE BOOKS FEEL PAIN.

Chandler Morris Over 245.5 Passing Yards is my Opening Lines Play of the Week, kill it with fire.