Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning odds, picks and predictions

The Colorado Avalanche (33-17-4) and Tampa Bay Lightning (29-20-5) square off Thursday. The opening faceoff at Amalie Arena is slated for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Avalanche vs. Lightningodds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

The Avalanche are closing out a lengthy post-All-Star break road trip. Stop No. 5 on that voyage was Tuesday at Washington. The Avs defeated the Capitals 6-3. Colorado has now scored 5 or more goals 8 times since the beginning of January.

Tampa Bay's 2nd half has been all-road up until this point. The Lightning closed out a 4-game road swing Tuesday with a 3-2 shootout win over the Boston Bruins. This game against Colorado opens a 4-game home stand for the Bolts.

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Avalanche at Lightning odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:25 a.m. ET.

Avalanche at Lightning projected goalies

Alexandar Georgiev (28-13-3, 2.94 GAA, .898 SV%, 2 SO) vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (18-11-0, 2.76 GAA, .903 SV%, 1 SO)

Georgiev started Tuesday and made 24 saves on 27 shots. He owns an .893 SV% in road games.

Vasilevskiy started Tuesday and turned aside 36 of 38 Boston shots. The 36 saves marked the 29-year-old's most in a single game since Dec. 14.

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Avalanche at Lightning picks and predictions

Prediction

Lightning 3, Avalanche 2

Tampa Bay is 2-1 across the last 3 games of this series. The Bolts have had 7 multi-game trips this season. In their return-home games, they have gone 5-2.

The Lightning figure to have an advantage in goal, but temper expectations because Tampa has been a near-bottom feeder in 5-on-5 play over recent weeks.

Consider a partial-unit play on TAMPA BAY (-110).

There's a lot of juice on this line. AVOID.

The Under is 5-1 across the last 6 series meetings. The Under is 3-1 in Tampa Bay's 4 games since the break.

Both teams have solid powerplays (the Bolts lead the NHL with a 30.7% conversion rate). But Colorado has scuffled with the man advantage of late; the Avs are 1 for their last 16. Tampa Bay has been productive on the PP, but Colorado has cut its penalty minutes over the last month or so and the Lightning have not been creating much in 5-on-5 play of late.

Recent-game, even-strength 5-on-5 expected-goal analytics are bearish on both offenses. The expected goalies have been solid out of the break -- Georgiev in a more under-the-radar fashion because he has been the victim of 4 powerplay goals.

FanDuel Sportsbook offers the best leverage here: BACK THE UNDER 6.5 (+112).