Avalanche vs Lightning Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

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09 February 2023

Avalanche vs Lightning Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

The Tampa Bay Lightning are 0-1-1 since the All-Star break, and welcome the reigning Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche on Thursday night. However, our NHL expert picks think the time is right to back the Bolts.

The Tampa Bay Lightning will be playing their third game in four nights when they take on the Colorado Avalanche at home as -118 favorites tonight.

The books are telling us the Avs would be the favorites on neutral ice at this price, but Tampa has been one of the best home teams in hockey this season, and have the No. 1 offense on home ice. Is the scheduled spot that much of a detriment for the Bolts tonight?

Find out my best bet for Avalanche vs. Lightning in our NHL picks and predictions for Thursday, February 9.

Avalanche vs Lightning best odds

Avalanche vs Lightning picks and predictions

The Lightning have dropped both of their games out of the break (0-1-1) and haven’t looked great doing so. However, this is the second-best home team in hockey, and Brian Elliott was in net on Tuesday in the 4-3 home loss to the San Jose Sharks.

Tampa has yet to lose three games in a row this year, and welcomes a Colorado team that is also coming off a letdown loss out of the break. The Lightning will stay in state with a game vs. the Florida Panthers on Saturday.

The books have the Bolts as -118 home favorites, which is the second-longest they’ve been at home all year (-105 vs. Boston) and I believe the books are pricing in Tampa’s third game in four days too heavily here.

Tampa is coming off an eight-day break due to the All-Star game, and if there were a spot where a third in four wasn’t terrible, it’s this one. The Lightning have played all the games in Florida, and the losses to the Panthers and Sharks will be motivating for a team that hasn’t lost three in a row this season.

This is still a Tampa Bay team that has a plus-1.42 goal differential per game at home, which is second only to the Bruins’ plus-1.88 mark.

The headshot that Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar took on Tuesday is also concerning. He has no injury designation, but if he were to sit, this line could move to Tampa -140.

With home ice being worth roughly 25 points, the books think Colorado would be a favorite on neutral ice, and I don’t buy that. The Avs are still being priced as the team they were a season ago, and Tampa is too good of a home team not to take them at this price. Andrei Vasilevskiy will rebound after a tough game vs. Florida, and Tampa grabs its 21st win at home in what will be its 27th home game of the year.

My best bet: Lightning moneyline (-118 at Pinnacle)

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Avalanche vs Lightning moneyline analysis

The Avalanche gave away a point on Tuesday to the Pittsburgh Penguins when they blew a late one-goal lead and eventually lost in overtime. That loss was just the Avs’ second in their last nine games, as Colorado has started to stack points against weak competition.

Since the start of 2023, the Avs have picked up wins over the Oilers, Senators, Red Wings, Flames, Canucks, Kraken, Capitals, and Blues, and own an 8-6 SU record. They are 7-2 SU over their last nine games, but the late play on Tuesday isn’t inspiring. The potential injury to Makar is a little worrisome too.

However, the Avs are playing their best hockey of the season. The special teams are rolling, they’re healthier, they’re the betting favorite to win the West despite clinging to a Wild Card spot, and they’re getting great goaltending. All of this is priced in, however, and very few teams are as overvalued by the books as the Avs. It’s a weird spot where I feel like the Bolts are being undervalued at -120ish.

Tampa owns the best home offense in hockey at 4.04 goals per game. This has translated to a 20-4-2 home record, which is the second-best in hockey behind only the Bruins. They have gone 0-1-1 since Monday, but it’s hard to overlook how good this team has been at Amalie Arena this season.

Vasilevskiy is in great form at home this year, and will be looking to rebound after a disastrous start on the road vs. the Panthers on Monday.

This is one of the longest prices Tampa has been at home all year, and recently they were a -125 home favorite vs. the Rangers, which was also the second game of a back-to-back. This price is where it is thanks to the Bolts playing a third game in four nights, but all three games have come in Florida, and this is a team that is better than their two games out of the break.

If there is one spot where three in four isn’t a big deal it’s coming out of the break, and the extra game might benefit the second-best home team in hockey tonight. Give me the Bolts on the moneyline.

Avalanche vs Lightning Over/Under analysis

The Lightning have come out of the break with a pair of no-sweat Overs, but with the total sitting at 6 and juiced to the Over, I’m leaning on the Under.

The Bolts have the best home offense in hockey, but Colorado has done a stellar job at playing low-scoring games of late, with a 1-5-1 O/U record in its last seven games.

Pavel Francouz has a 2.14 GAA and a .929 SV% since returning from injury last month, and the Colorado penalty kill has been elite of late with a 88% kill rate over the last three weeks. I like Tampa a lot here, but a 3-1 or 4-1 Bolts win is in play tonight.

Motivation will also play a big role for the Bolts, who are riding a two-game losing streak and have yet to lose three in a row this year. A solid 60-minute game vs. one of the best in the West is coming from the Lightning tonight, who are just too veteran of a club to play another poor game in this spot.

I won’t be putting any money down on this as I’m invested on the Lightning, but I certainly lean to the Under. If the total hits 6.5, then it will be a play on the Under.