Lightning vs Avalanche Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

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20 February 2023

Lightning vs Avalanche Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

Tampa Bay got a bit of revenge over the reigning Stanley Cup champs last week when it shut out Colorado 5-0 at home. Find out where the betting edge lies in tonight's rematch in our Lightning vs. Avalanche betting picks.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Colorado Avalanche will meet at Ball Arena for the second time since last year's Stanley Cup Finals as the Avs host the Bolts as +105 underdogs.

These two teams met five days ago, with Tampa getting the 5-0 home win as -145 home favorites. However, are the Avs the right play tonight despite a moneyline that some would refer to as a "trap"?

Find out in my free NHL betting picks and predictions for Lightning vs. Avalanche on February 14.

Lightning vs Avalanche best odds

Lightning vs Avalanche picks and predictions

With Cale Makar out and Erik Johnson also on the shelf for the Colorado Avalanche, Devon Toews is going to play big minutes against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Since Makar got injured, Toews has played over 53 minutes and has a goal on four shots across two games. He’s currently playing alongside Samuel Girard and will once again have a massive role tonight.

Andrei Vasilevskiy shut out the Avs last week, but his road numbers are nowhere near his home stats over the last three seasons. Just this season alone, the Tampa goalie has a save percentage that is 16 points lower on the road.

Toews will also man the point on the power play which should mean plenty of opportunities to get a point, as the Bolts take the third-most penalties per game and nearly five per game on the road. Colorado's power play is also very good at home, scoring at a 27% clip.

Toews is usually listed around -105 for a point. Now that he's taken over Makar's role, today’s -122 price still seems long... especially with Johnson also sitting.

My best bet: Devon Toews Over 0.5 points (-122 at FanDuel)

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Lightning vs Avalanche moneyline analysis

The Lightning have really turned things up a notch lately. They’ve come out of the break with a pair of wins, outscoring their opponents 8-1. The dominance hasn’t been lost on the books, who have made the Bolts -125 favorites tonight.

In most cases, books give us 40 to 50 points when switching venues, but the adjustment here is just 20 points tonight. This is awfully low, considering Makar was out for the previous meeting. Taking the Avs at home based on the price is certainly credible but there are some other spots that have me leaning toward the home side.

You don’t lose 5-0 to a team you played against in the Stanley Cup Finals and not bring a better effort in the next meeting. Professional athletes don’t enjoy getting embarrassed and the Bolts should see a more motivated Colorado team tonight.

As mentioned earlier, Makar will be out and he's one of a few skaters who is worth 20 points on the moneyline. However, this team has had to play without their top defenseman already this season, and the Avs are still 5-1 straight up when he is out of the lineup.

Tampa Bay is 11-6 since January 1, but this is still a team that has the 18th-highest point percentage on the road at 13-12 SU. It may look like a “trap”, but this price on the home side needs to be adjusted more.

Lightning vs Avalanche Over/Under analysis

The last meeting finished with more than 6.00 expected goals. However, thanks to Vasilevskiy stopping all 30 shots he saw, the Under still cashed. Things might be different on the road today for the former Vezina winner.

The Tampa Bay goalie has always been much better at home as his GAA in Tampa over the last three seasons sits at 2.13. However, on the road, that number jumps to 2.72.

Bettors are getting a 5.5 total tonight and it's hard to lay off the Over, considering the Bolts average 6.4 combined goals per game on the road while the Avs are coming off a 5-3 win and are now down two starting defensemen.

Projected Colorado starter Alex Georgiev has also allowed eight goals over his last two starts, including surrendering all five goals to the Bolts last week.

Both teams have elite talent in their top-six and we’ll see a pair of Top-10 power plays and two penalty kills that sit outside the Top 10. We could also see plenty of power-play opportunities as only the Panthers take more combined minor penalties than the Lightning.

At 6, this is a lean to the Over, but at 5.5... it's a no-doubter.