CONCACAF Gold Cup Quarter-Final Betting Previews, Best Odds, and USMNT vs Canada Pick
UEFA is a much deeper confederation compared to CONCACAF, and thusly (as per usual) this cycle’s CONCACAF Gold Cup is not filled to the brim with elite lineups.
The usual cast of North American favorites have been booked for quarter-final dates since last weekend, including El Tri of Mexico, the “Reggae Boyz” of Jamaica, and of course the USMNT.
2023’s CONCACAF Gold Cup has still resulted in surprises at the sportsbook. Some contenders have already been mysteriously favored over other name-brand stalwarts to win gold medals, and in each case, there are only subtle betting angles as to why there are such short odds for the upstarts next to skeptical odds on titans.
The first trend that seems to ignore the results of the last Gold Cup is Mexico over USA. The defending champions of the USMNT are priced cheaper than 2-to-1 while El Tricolor has been leading the way as a nearly 1-to-1 Gold Cup outright winner pick.
Next up is the curious odds on a second tier of CONCACAF rivals, for which betting markets have been even more slanted in favor of the less-touted team. Jamaica is unbeaten in the North American championship so far, and its lineup has fully matured, including several footballers who are expected to start for Premiership teams in 2023-24. But it’s Panama which has garnered more underdog bets placed as a gold-medal futures pick than Jamaica throughout the Group Stage. Panama is a minus-odds pick to beat guest national team Qatar in Saturday’s quarter-final round, a line that rivals Team USA’s against the neighbors up north.
It could be that the short odds on Mexico (and the “sexy” underdog bet on Panama) appear more inviting due to the challenging Gold Cup playoff bracket draws of Stars & Stripes and Reggae Boyz. Here’s a glance at FanDuel Sportsbook’s odds on the quarter-final matchups hosted across the USA this weekend.
Gold Cup Quarter-Final Odds, Previews, and Predictions
Panama vs Qatar (Saturday, July 8)
Team Panama’s line is just the sort of (-115) wager to win that can typically be found on Qatar and other Eurasian nations in calendar years following a FIFA Men’s World Cup. The hopeful “bubble” contenders of FIFA World Cup qualification cycles can throw a brief party during international soccer’s least intense seasons of play.
Panama has maintained a solid starting-11 throughout CONCACAF Nations League and Gold Cup competitions while fatter programs tinker around with their lineups in a “down” cycle.
Yet it wouldn’t take an upset win by Qatar (+300) this week to show that Panama is a dodgy futures bet to be this year’s champions of NA.
Canal Men have never won the Gold Cup, and last reached the prestigious Gold Cup Final almost 20 years ago. Panama probably has to defeat at least 2 of the event’s triumvirate of favorites to win America’s current edition of the Gold Cup gala this time around.
State-side bettors can often underrate Qatar just like any Middle East nation, but in these circumstances, handicappers are simply too optimistic in Panama’s favor. José Fajardo’s striking has impressed pundits in 2023’s Group Stage, but he doesn’t necessarily deserve bright (+140) prop odds to score against Qatar.
Generous 1-to-1 prop bet odds on “Both Teams to Score” are being offered by FanDuel, but the defensively stingy Maroons of Qatar beat Mexico in the Group Stage with a clean sheet.
WagerBop’s Pick: Both Teams to Score (“No” Proposition) (-148)
Mexico vs Costa Rica (Saturday, July 8)
A post-COVID slog has cursed Mexico in recent international soccer fixtures, with the team facing a divided lineup for the 2020 Summer Olympics (which occurred in the summer of 2021) and the 2021 Gold Cup, then a let-down in the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Though El Tricolor struggled with Qatar in this year’s CONCACAF Group Stage, the implied casualness of July 1st’s defeat is only one reason why Mexico is a solid (-300) money-line favorite to defeat pesky Costa Rica (+700) in Saturday’s second and last quarter-final bout.
The attacks of Los Ticos were lively enough to score 6 goals in a must-have win over Martinique that allowed Costa Rica to qualify. Costa Rica also parried Panama with some success in a 1-goal defeat to begin Group Stage. An all-in lineup surmounts the Mexico match with a potential fatigue issue, however, as the team endured a grueling Round 3 battle that included 23 fouls and 6 yellow cards, while El Tri sat having already clinched a bid to the Q-Final round.
WagerBop’s Pick: No Recommended Bets
Guatemala vs Jamaica (Sunday, July 9)
The USMNT is more than proud to finally be fielding a just handful of Premiership footballers among the senior men’s program’s growing list of quality names. Jamaica can ante-up on the Stars & Stripes with a national team that’s become a veritable pipeline to the English Premier League. Jamaica’s got so many swift forwards coming into their own on the Premier League level that Reggae Boyz cannot even include every “premier” striker up front on a given day.
However, a further look into the Gold Cup odds of 2023 reveals that Jamaica has been far from the most-trusted side among the event’s gamers. Reggae Boyz are offered as merely a modest (-145) money-line pick to defeat Guatemala on Sunday.
Jamaica’s overall record does show underachievement, and a potentially shaky back-line in big moments. Reggae Boyz were largely a let-down in the recent CONCACAF Nations League cycle, allowing 2 goals in a draw with Mexico and losing to lightweights Jordan and Trinidad & Tobago (Tobago can be lazy on defense sometimes, but Trinidad is a fierce fellow) in friendly kickoffs.
On the flip side, you’d think soccer viewers from the United States of all places would have come to know what a burgeoning national team looks like, after watching Christian Pulisic’s squads. Jamaica scored first and nearly defeated Team USA in Round 1 of the 2023 Gold Cup, and has been coasting since. The favorites’ EPL speed and striking should overwhelm Guatemala, following the latter’s own tough trek throughout this year’s Group Stage competition.
WagerBop’s Pick: Jamaica (-145)
United States vs Canada (Sunday, July 9)
There is always a chance that betting odds will favor the USMNT a bit too much due to sentimental wagers, and team USA’s healthy (-150) money-line odds to beat Canada in Sunday’s quarter-final must be examined for masses of patriotic fans tilting the betting board.
Evidence suggests any Red, White, and Blue tinted gazes are actually looking at something very real. The Stars and Stripes is outclassing the weak sisters of CONCACAF like never before, but has also been resting its superstars at the same time, with exception of record-setting striker Jesus Ferreira of FC Dallas. Team Canada is unbeaten in the 2023 competition, looking for revenge after disappointing vs the United States in Nations League, and confident after coming through in the clutch against Cuba in Round 3 of what turned into an anxious Group Stage. But the Canadians are resembling a casualty ward just as some of the USA’s veteran performers look to step-in for the playoff rounds to come.
Key players for Canada – including Cyle Larin and Milan Borjan – won’t appear against the United States this weekend. Alphonso Davies of Bayern Munich has additionally been ruled out of the Gold Cup. Add another 6-7 injuries and full-time replacements, and Team Canada is competing with a squad that could lose U23 events.
WagerBop’s Pick: United States (-150)
