Corner Picks, best bets odds, soccer predictions: Inter are the best team in Italy, Napoli have stabilized

cbssports.com

26 January 2024

Corner Picks, best bets odds, soccer predictions: Inter are the best team in Italy, Napoli have stabilized

Jurgen Klopp is leaving Liverpool at the end of the season. If you're a Liverpool fan, you're undoubtedly sad to see Klopp going, but aren't you also a bit terrified? Klopp has been at Liverpool since early in the 2015 season, and it's been a charmed run since.

While Liverpool finished eighth that first season, until last season's fifth place, they'd never finished lower than fourth under Klopp since. They won their first Premier League title in 30 years in 2020 and a Champions League the year before. Liverpool finished as runners-up in the competition in two other seasons.

Liverpool currently sit atop the Premier League again. Klopp could go out with another Premier League crown and an additional trophy or three. Even if he doesn't, there's no way to describe his tenure as anything but a total and complete success.

But what happens after he's gone? This is where that sense of terror comes in. As I said, that Premier League title in 2020 was the club's first in 30 years. Liverpool is one of the biggest clubs in the world and has plenty of history, but it was wandering in the wilderness for a while before Klopp arrived. Also, if you look at the makeup of the current team, a lot of what Liverpool does still revolves around Mo Salah scoring goals, but he's 31, and who knows if he'll want to stick around post-Klopp.

Liverpool has also lost part of its infrastructure in recent years that helped it build a strong club without spending at the levels of other clubs in its tier. In recent years, we've seen Newcastle United taken over by Saudi Arabia. Manchester United just received an influx of cash, and even Aston Villa has begun to fancy itself as a contender at the top.

I'm not predicting Liverpool will fall off the face of the Earth or anything, but there's a sense of the unknown that fans of the club haven't had to deal with in a long time.

Hoffenheim vs. Heidenheim

It's the Heim Derby! If you're surprised to see this match crack the column this week, don't worry; I am, too. We don't typically delve into Bundesliga waters outside the top of the league, but there's value in this spot I don't want to pass up. These teams are next to each other in the table, but while they're in eighth and ninth place and European spots seem within reach, the truth is there's a gap between them and the teams up top. Also, both these teams are overachieving a bit.

Hoffenheim is in eighth but have an expected goal differential (xGD) of -3.6. Heidenheim are ninth with an xGD of -15.6, which is the 16th-worst in the league. If we used xGD to determine the standings, Heidenheim would be in danger of relegation. Those numbers are what we're looking to take advantage of. While negative overall, Hoffenheim have an xGD of +1.5 at home, while Heidenheim is at -11.5 in nine away matches. They're next to each other in the standings, but Hoffenheim are the much better team here. The Pick: Hoffenheim (-148)

Lazio vs. Napoli

Napoli remain a mess, but they're trying! Caretaker manager Walter Mazzarri finally realized that he couldn't run the team in the same manner Luciano Spalletti did last season when Napoli won Serie A because he didn't know how to do it, so he went back to what he knows, and the results are somewhat encouraging so far. Napoli are now playing three at the back. It's not the same free-flowing, aggressive, and progressive attack Napoli normally play, but right now, it's keeping them from allowing three goals to Torino or four to Frosinone. Since the switch, Napoli have allowed only two goals in three matches, and the one goal they allowed was an added-time winner by Inter's Lautaro Martinez in the Supercoppa Final while down a man.

The problem for Napoli is they are having real difficulty scoring themselves, a problem exacerbated by Victor Osimhen's absence. On the road against Lazio, the struggles are likely to continue, but the defensive effort should remain. And Lazio haven't exactly been firing on all cylinders themselves lately. Something tells me this won't be the most exciting match of the weekend. The Pick: Under 2.5 (-160)

Fiorentina vs. Inter Milan

I'd been waiting for the Fiorentina backslide to arrive, and it seems as though it's here. Losing Nico Gonzalez for a month and a half kneecapped this team a bit, but the good news is it sounds as though he'll be available off the bench for this match. The bad news is he can't play all 90 minutes because Fiorentina will likely need him to if they want to entertain the idea of beating the best team in Serie A.

Inter are on a dominant run. Not only did they win the Supercoppa last week, beating Lazio and Napoli to do so, but this team hasn't lost a Serie A match since late September. That's the only league match it's lost all year. Inter have more clean sheets (12) than goals allowed (10) this season. I know Juventus are hanging close in the standings, but the truth is there isn't another team in the league operating at Inter's level, and I'm comfortable blindly betting them these days. The Pick: Inter (-120)