Cowboys vs Chargers odds, picks, predictions: Bet on multiple Dak Prescott passing TDs
Dak Prescott has had a 2023 regular season to forget so far. The Dallas Cowboys quarterback has just five passing touchdowns for barely over 1,000 yards. He’s coming off a primetime loss to the San Francisco 49ers where he completed 58% of his passes and threw three interceptions.
The Mississippi State product has just one game with more than one passing touchdown this year. Prescott leads the Cowboys into primetime once again in Week 6 on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers.
FanDuel has Prescott’s touchdown prop bet at -120 odds for over 1.5 passing touchdowns. They believe in the 30 year old’s ability to have a bounce back game and so do I.
Cowboys vs Chargers prediction: Analysis
(Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST, ESPN & ABC)
Entering the season, Mike McCarthy’s offensive system was created to prevent turnovers from Prescott after a 15 interception campaign in 2022. It’s worked only in the sense that Prescott is completing a career high percentage of his passes.
But his yards per attempt are at a career low, and he has just five passing touchdowns. Granted, Dallas ranks sixth in points per game despite Prescott’s lesser involvement. Dallas ranks fifth in rush attempts per game but tanks tied for 19th in play action pass attempts.
Prescott being limited in his downfield throwing has slowed down CeeDee Lamb following his 2022 breakout year. Brandin Cooks has just nine catches for 73 yards in this system. They’ve also received little from their tight ends.
The defense remains stout, but they’ll be tested against the Chargers. Depth pieces will be counted on as the team adjusts to life without Leighton Vander Esch. They’re the third best pass defense statistically, but the loss of Trevon Diggs could prove costly this year.
Losing Diggs and Vander Esch before a game against the Chargers is less than ideal. Austin Ekeler is fully healthy, and Keenan Allen could feast coming off their bye week. Whereas Prescott’s averaging a career low in yards per attempt, Justin Herbert is averaging a career high.
While the Chargers are just 2-2 this year, Herbert doesn’t deserve much blame. He has just one interception compared to seven passing touchdowns. Herber’s benefited from an offensive line that’s helped him be sacked just nine times.
The Chargers remain committed to the run with the tenth most rushing attempts and rushing yards per game despite Ekeler playing just one game. But defense is the concern for Los Angeles, which is concerning given Brandon Staley’s background.
Staley remains one of the most controversial figures in the league, with them always playing close games due to questionable decisions. His defense (Despite being as star-studded as it is) ranks 25th in points per game and 31st in yards per game.
Cowboys vs Chargers prediction: Pick
Dak Prescott over 1.5 passing touchdowns at FanDuel (-120)
Los Angeles giving up the most passing yards per game is what makes me feel confident in Prescott’s ability to go over 1.5 passing touchdowns. That said, the Cowboys need to clean up their poor red zone play. They’re 27th in red zone touchdown percentage.
But if they can figure out their red zone woes, they should be able to move the ball at will. As long as their offensive line stays healthy, Prescott will have opportunities to let the play develop and look more downfield.
Another reason for my confidence in this pick is the likes of Lamb, Cooks, and Michael Gallup are due for receiving touchdowns. No receiver on the Cowboys has more than one touchdown.
Ultimately, I believe Prescott is a symbol of controversy due to the team he plays for. We’ve seen him be a top ten quarterback many times before. McCarthy needs to and should realize you can’t be a serious contender in 2023 by hiding your quarterback.
I think this is the game we see Prescott look more like his old self. Whether that results in a win will remain to be seen. But it’s hard to imagine McCarthy and the Cowboys offense maintaining the status quo after getting destroyed by the 49ers last week.
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