Cox Plate 2016: Bookmaker says Hartnell cannot beat Winx; Moonee Valley match race

ONE of the nation’s leading bookies has declared the Cox Plate match race between Winx and Hartnell will be a no race.

“Winx is a moral,’’ Tom Waterhouse declared from betting giant William Hill. “Hartnell has never beaten Winx and I can’t see him beating her in the Cox Plate.’’

Winx is the $2 favourite in most betting markets, including William Hill’s, for the $3.5 million Cox Plate (2040m) at Moonee Valley on ­Saturday.

The only other runner under $15 in early betting is Hartnell at $2.80.

The Cox Plate is unlikely to attract a full field. Ten starters have been confirmed, including Queen Elizabeth Stakes winner Lucia Valentina, Epsom Handicap hero Hauraki, French raider Vadamos and brilliant three-year-old filly Yankee Rose.

But the two Sydney champions, Winx and Hartnell, have been in such dominant form this spring that they are expected to fight out the Cox Plate finish.

Winx has reeled off wins in the Warwick Stakes, George Main Stakes and Caulfield Stakes in her three races this spring and she remains ­unbeaten in her past 12 starts.

Hartnell has been similarly magnificent winning the Chelmsford Stakes, Hill Stakes and Turnbull Stakes by a combined margin of 17½ lengths.

He thrashed Jameka by more than three lengths in the Turnbull Stakes and that mare won the Caulfield Cup just as easily last Saturday.

But in three previous clashes, Winx has won them all and Hartnell has not finished closer than 3½ lengths behind the great mare, which was in the Warwick Stakes when both horses resumed from a spell in August.

Winx and Hartnell first met in the Cox Plate last year when the mare scored a stunning win and her rival ran fifth, more than 10 lengths ­behind her.

Their only other clash came in the Chipping Norton Stakes in autumn when Hartnell finished nearly five lengths behind Winx.

“It is like Hay List and Black Caviar all over again,’’ Waterhouse said.

“Hay List looked like a champion but when he went up against Black Caviar she was too good for him.

“I think it will be the same in the Cox Plate — Winx will bolt in.’’

Waterhouse said the winning margins Hartnell posts might look more impressive but he warned punters not to read too much into them.

“Black Caviar, when she was extended, would win by 10 lengths but she was rarely ever extended,’’ Waterhouse said.

“Winx is the same, she wins easily but is rarely ever asked to extend.

“She does exactly what her rider asks her to do and she does all she needs to do to win.’’

Trainer Chris Waller took Winx to Moonee Valley last Saturday morning for her first look at the track since her memorable Cox Plate win last year.

Waller was pleased with Winx’s trackwork gallop and he believes that he has the mighty mare in peak condition for her Cox Plate defence on Saturday.

“At this stage she’s spot on,’’ Waller said. “She’s a stronger horse than she was last spring and now she copes with everything so well.

“I think it’s underestimated how much pressure there is in a Cox Plate. From the time they leave the mounting yard it’s a race like no other.

“You never go into it too confident. I have huge respect for the opposition. They are all there for a reason and it’s the weight-for-age championship of Australia.”

WINX VERSUS HARTNELL

WINX

5YO mare

22 starts 16 wins 3 seconds. $7,498,175

LAST THREE STARTS

WON Warwick Stakes (1400m), Randwick August 20. Margin 3.5 lengths, from Hartnell.

WON Colgate Optic (1600m) Randwick September 17. Margin 1.3 lengths.

WON Ladbrokes Stakes (2000m) Caulfield October 8. Margin: 2 lengths.

HARTNELL

6YO gelding

26 starts 10 wins, five seconds. $2,233,999.

LAST THREE STARTS

WON Chelmsford (1600), Randwick September 3. Margin 7.8 lengths.

WON Hill Stakes (1600m) Randwick September 17. Margin 5.8 lengths.

WON Turnbull Stakes (2000m) Flemington October 2. Margin: 3.3 lengths, from Jameka.

HEAD TO HEAD

WINX 3, HARTNELL 0

2015 COX PLATE (October 24): Winx first, Hartnell fifth. Margin: 10 lengths.

2016 CHIPPING NORTON STAKES (February 27) Winx first, Hartnell fifth. Margin: 4.7 lengths.

2016 WARWICK STAKES (August 20). Winx first, Hartnell second. Margin 3.5 lengths

LIKELY COX PLATE FIELD

WINX (Hugh Bowman) $2.10 57kg

HARTNELL (James McDonald) $2.80 59kg

VADAMOS (Joao Moriera) $15 59kg

BLACK HEART BART (Brad Rawiller) $15 59kg

YANKEE ROSE (Dean Yendall) $15 47.5kg

HAURAKI (Craig Williams) $17 59kg

LUCIA VALENTINA (Kerrin McEvoy) $17 57kg

AWESOME ROCK (Steve Baster) $51 59kg

HAPPY CLAPPER (Brenton Avdulla) $51 59kg

SIR ISAAC NEWTON (Colm O’Donoghue) $51 59kg

HAPPY TRAILS (Ben Melham) $101 59kg

Market: TAB Fixed Odds

Ray on winning roll ... again

PUNTERS hoping to cash in on the remaining Group 1 races this spring need only look as far as The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas for the good oil.

Thomas is on track to reproduce last year’s effort of tipping the winners of Melbourne’s five Group 1 races. Already Thomas has tipped Caulfield Guineas winner Divine Prophet and Saturday’s Caulfield Cup champion Jameka.

Last year Thomas found five Group 1 winners on consecutive Saturdays with Press Statement in the Caulfield Guineas, Mongolian Khan in the Caulfield Cup, Winx in the Cox Plate, Tarzino’s VRC Derby triumph and Turn Me Loose’s success in the Emirates Stakes.

It’s been a rewarding 12 months for Thomas, who was recently honoured with the Rod Allen Award for Racing Writer of the Year.