Cubs odds, picks, predictions: Best bet for Cubs vs Pirates (June 13)

The Chicago Cubs take on the Pittsburgh Pirates for the first game of this three-game set on Tuesday, and we have Cubs odds, picks and predictions featuring our best bet for this June 13 game.

I’m not confident that the Cubbies can compete with the first-place Pirates, at least in this matchup, and I’ll be betting my money accordingly.

Odds via FanDuel, current at time of writing and subject to change.

Moneyline: Pirates (+120) vs. Cubs (-142)

Spread: Pirates +1.5 (-170) vs. Cubs -1.5 (+140)

Total: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)

• Read our expert rankings of the best sports betting sites here.

(8:05 p.m. ET, Marquee)

I’ll be on the Cubs Tuesday night mainly because I want to fade Chicago starting pitcher Jameson Taillon.

Taillon has never put it all together and has even regressed in 2023. He’s relentlessly adjusted his pitch mix throughout the years -- he’s currently working with three different fastballs and added a sweeper -- but it’s never pushed him into elite territory.

He better adjust again because his current mix is not working. Taillon pairs a 7.02 ERA with a 5.60 expected ERA, and he’s on pace to post career-highs in barrel rate (11.9%) and walk rate (7.9%).

When you allow baserunners and then allow barrels, bad things will happen. Taillon is a fade candidate for the foreseeable future.

Pittsburgh starting pitcher Luis Ortiz has questionable underlying statistics (7.44 expected ERA, -0.2 FanGraphs’ WAR), but he’s got a live arm. Ortiz pairs a near-triple-digit fastball with a devastating, wipeout, 70-grade slider.

Ortiz boasts one of the league’s worst batted-ball profiles, but he’s only pitched 27 innings (small sample size) and has a ceiling infinitely higher than Taillon’s. I’d still bet on Ortiz if it means we get to fade Taillon.

It’s probably worth fading the Cubs in general right now. Over the past 30 days, the Cubs are the only team in MLB with a batting average under .200 and an OPS under .600 against right-handed pitching. Predictably, the Cubs are 14-24 since the calendar flipped to May.

The Pirates have also regressed heavily after a red-hot start, going 8-18 in May. However, they’ve begun to right the ship, winning six of their last nine behind a rebounding lineup (111 wRC+ since June 1, 10th in MLB).

It’s worth mentioning both bullpens have been a disaster recently, but I still trust the Pirates’ duo of David Bednar and Colin Holderman more than the Cubs’ duo of Mark Leiter Jr. and Adbert Alzolay.

I’ll take my shot with Ortiz and the Pirates against Taillon and the Cubs. I actually think the wrong team is favored here, considering how each club is trending, so I’m happy playing the Pirates at any plus-money number.

Pirates ML (+120) | Play to ML (+100)