Cubs predictions: buy or sell Chicago to go over 76.5 wins?

We’re just nine days away from Major League Baseball’s start, so we’re running out of time to get our win totals futures in.

Chicago is coming off a third-place finish in the National League Central, but with only 74 wins, it finished 19 games out of first place.

The Cubs did finish strongly, winning 12 of their final 15 games.

• Ohio sports betting is now live — Check out Ian Firstenberg’s list of the best Ohio sports betting sites and apps

However, you must always be careful with September wins when you have minor league call-ups and some teams simply playing out the string.

Nonetheless, the bookmakers have set the Cubs’ win total at 76.5 games. In this preview, we’ll examine if their offseason moves warrant an increase in their win total by 3.5 games.

I’ve always found that baseball win totals are probably the toughest to project in sports. Teams generally face the same team over two to four games.

Then one must account for the marathon season of 162 games without even accounting for a team’s ability to overcome lengthy injuries.

In football, you can practically go through a team’s schedule and decide which games they will likely win or lose.

However, such a practice would be impractical in baseball due to the matchups on the mound and the fact that starting pitchers generally take their turn every fifth day.

Thus, a good rule of thumb that I like to use in baseball involves using the opposing teams in the division to help project team totals.

In the NL Central, the Cubs finished ahead of the Reds and Pirates, and both teams remained relatively inactive during the offseason.

According to Spotrac.com, the Pirates finished 24th in total spending with $39.4 million, while the Reds were 28th with $29.9 million.

The only two teams that finished below them were the Mariners ($18.7 million) and Braves ($18.5 million), but their farm systems have produced tremendous players in recent years, and they both reached the playoffs last season.

And then there are the Cubs, who came in fifth in total spending with $329.4 million.

Chicago added free agents in the infield with shortstop Dansby Swanson ($177 million), first baseman Eric Hosmer ($720,000) and catcher Tucker Barnhart ($6.5 million).

They upgraded their outfield with Cody Bellinger ($17.5 million) and Trey Mancini ($14 million).

Starter Jameson Taillon ($68 million) and reliever Brad Boxberger ($ 2.8 million) are the additions to the pitching staff.

Given the hitters the Cubs brought in, they should be able to overcome what they’re losing with Willson Contreras moving on to the Cardinals.

MLB.com projects that the Cubs’ new-look roster has a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) value of +3.1.

However, with the Reds and Pirates staying relatively quiet in free agency, I think the Cubs can drastically improve their 37-39 mark in the division from last season.

Note that the Cubs went 11-8 against the Reds and 10-9 against the Pirates.

Chicago’s offseason moves should lead to even more wins against those teams while being more competitive against the Cardinals and Brewers.