Cubs vs Braves Odds, Picks, & Predictions

Covers

27 September 2023

Cubs vs Braves Odds, Picks, & Predictions

Jameson Taillon will try to end his 2023 regular season on a high note for the Cubs, but our MLB betting picks have a hard time believing he will vs. the Braves tonight. Find out which Atlanta hitter we're betting on in this one.

The Chicago Cubs face the Atlanta Braves this Wednesday night for the second leg of a three-game set at Truist Park. Atlanta is a -160 favorite in the MLB odds with a lofty total of 9.5.

Both teams have something to fight for as the regular season winds down, with the Cubs trying to sneak in as a Wild Card team, and the Braves looking to clinch the best record in baseball and home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

Chicago has a veteran starter on the hill while the Braves trot out a 25-year-old rookie who may not last five innings, but that's cold comfort for the Cubs in this one. Find out which Atlanta batter is offering value in the MLB player props as I dish out my free MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Braves on September 27.

Cubs vs Braves odds

Cubs vs Braves predictions

Chicago Cubs starter Jameson Taillon may have two outings of six scoreless innings over four starts this month, but that does little to salve what's been a miserable 2023 for the 31-year-old hurler.

Taillon owns a 5.01 ERA on the campaign (144 1/3 innings), which balloons to 5.56 on the road (66 1/3 innings). It should be noted that he shut out the Diamondbacks (12th in runs per game on the road) and Rockies (29th) at home in those aforementioned September successes. Taillon has coughed up eight earned runs over 10 2/3 innings of work on the road this month, with five of the 14 hits he served up in that span going for home runs.

The Florida native has yet to face the Atlanta Braves — owners of the best offense in baseball (5.83 runs per game) — this year, and now he must do so as a visitor. That has to have batters like Marcell Ozuna licking their chops.

Ozuna has been swinging a hot bat over the last two weeks, tallying 14 hits over his last 48 at-bats (.292) with a .942 OPS. He also has 13 RBI in that stretch, with nine of those coming over his last six games. He chalked up an RBI in five of those six affairs, and I think he'll make it 6-for-7 in this contest.

Taillon has allowed four hits and two RBI to Ozuna in 12 prior meetings. You couldn't ask for a much bigger mismatch in barrel rate, with Taillon ranked in the 10th percentile among pitchers (10.7%) and Ozuna in the 95th percentile among hitters (15.9%).

Ozuna also sports a .272 batting average vs. fastballs this year, along with a .306 average vs. cutters. Those are Taillon's two most frequent offerings, and they're yielding a .262 and a .316 OBA, respectively.

The Braves DH doesn't just draw a good matchup vs. Taillon, but against the Cubs bullpen as well, which is 16th by ERA (4.23) and 18th by FIP (4.70) this month.

My best bet: Marcell Ozuna Over 0.5 RBI (+150 at bet365)

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Cubs vs Braves same-game parlay

Ozuna 1+ RBI

Braves TT Over 4.5

Taillon 4+ Ks

This three-leg same-game parlay starts with our best bet, which I discussed in great detail above.

The second leg correlates well, and I believe we're not paying too much of a premium on the Braves to get to five runs at -155. They've reached this threshold in six of their last seven overall, and eight of their last 10 at home.

Finally, the third leg spices things up as we back Taillon to some extent after fading him in the first two legs.

Taillon has recorded no fewer than five strikeouts in six straight starts and has tallied four or more in 21 of 28 starts in 2023 (75%).

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Cubs vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The consensus moneyline opened at -153 on the Braves, and most books have raised the vig on Atlanta by 5-10 cents as of early Wednesday afternoon.

I find it surprising that the Braves aren't considered stronger favorites, especially given Taillon's recent struggles. However, it's possible that Chicago is seen as the more "desperate" team, as their playoff hopes are on the line. Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding Atlanta's choice to start Darius Vines might be influencing the odds.

Vines has been decent in limited opportunities, holding the Rockies to two runs over six frames at Coors Field in his lone MLB start on August 30. He's worked three times in long relief since at the big-league level, allowing five earned runs over 8 1/3 innings. Vines owns a 2.36 ERA over 34 1/3 innings at Triple-A Gwinnett this year.

The total hit the board at 10.5 but has come crashing down to as low as 9, with most books offering 9.5 at +100 on the Over.

I noted in the SGP section that the Braves' offense has been humming, but the Cubs' bats haven't been too shabby of late either, scoring at least six runs in seven of their last nine overall. With the Atlanta relief corps in disarray this month (5.49 ERA, 26th in baseball), I have to lean toward the Over.

Trend to know

The Over is 16-4 in the Braves' last 20 overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Braves

Cubs vs Braves game info

Starting pitchers

Jameson Taillon (8-10, 5.05 ERA): Taillon has a seven-pitch arsenal but leans primarily on his fastball (33.9%) and cutter (22.3%), with the curveball (15.1%) serving as his "wipeout" pitch to lefties and the sweeper (14.4%) cast in that role vs. righties. The results have been less-than-stellar for Taillon in 2023, as he ranks in the 24th percentile or worse in Whiff%, xBA, and xERA.

Darius Vines (1-0, 4.40 ERA): Vines has featured four pitches in his brief time in the bigs, namely the cutter (37.6%), four-seamer (29.8%), changeup (25.7%), and slider (6.9%). His fastball tops out at less than 90 mph, so he'll be hoping to keep the Cubs fooled with pitch movement and change in location. Chicago is sixth in walks drawn this year, meaning Vines will have to ensure his control is on point this evening.