Daily tennis tips: US Open best bets, betting analysis and accumulators
Tennis betting tips: US Open, Monday August 28
1.5pts Steve Johnson to win a set v Taylor Fritz at 7/5 (betway)
0.5pt Steve Johnson to win the first set v Taylor Fritz at 5/1 (BoyleSports)
1pt Richard Gasquet to beat Fabian Marozsan 3-0 at 9/4 (Sky Bet, Betfair)
0.5pt Milos Raonic to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at 13/5 (BetVictor, William Hill)
1pt over 12.5 games in first set of Milos Raonic v Stefanos Tsitsipas at 6/4 (bet365)
1pt Quentin Halys to beat Benjamin Bonzi 3-0 at 100/30 (BetVictor, bet365)
Steve Johnson v Taylor Fritz
Johnson’s best tennis has always come when his serve is working well and, since Wimbledon, he’s gone unbroken in six of his 14 matches.
Admittedly, most of those have come on the Challenger Tour but with two hardcourt titles pocketed, he should be in good stead coming into this contest.
Johnson has won two of the pair’s previous six meetings (it’s 1-2 on outdoor hard) which is far from disastrous and I give him a greater chance than the long odds suggest.
Fritz may have won the Atlanta title at the start of the US Open Series but he’s since lost to Tallon Griekspoor and Alex de Minaur. Defeat to Novak Djokovic is never a disgrace but winning only four games hardly suggests Fritz is at his best right now.
All in all, it’s been a rather underwhelming season for the world number nine.
So, how to oppose him here?
Well, I like Johnson to win a set at odds-against, while 9/2 about Johnson taking the opener is also worth a second glance.
Fritz has lost the first set in six of his last nine Grand Slam matches, seven of 10 at the US Open and four of six in New York since they switched to the current Laykold surface.
That suggests some early nerves at the big events.
Finally, I’ll also mention that Johnson is 10/1 to win the opener 7-6.
At their best, these are two very good servers, while three of the four first sets Fritz has lost on these Laykold courts have been via a tie-breaker.
Richard Gasquet v Fabian Marozsan
Marozsan is very much a clay specialist but, even so, it’s still surprising that this will be the very first tour-level match he’s played on an outdoor hardcourt.
The two such indoor matches he’s played both ended in straight-sets defeats, while this will be his first match of any kind on the surface since February.
Marozsan only just arrived in the US for his tournament debut (he’s never even played qualifying) having stayed behind in Europe for the dregs of the claycourt campaign and he was last seen quitting a Challenger event in Banja Luka due to injury.
Gasquet, on the other hand, has been here a few weeks and made the quarter-finals in Winston-Salem where he only lost in a final-set tie-break to Sebastian Korda.
All things considered, I can see the Frenchman dominating this and backing him for a 3-0 win looks a decent play at 9/4.
Stefanos Tsitsipas v Milos Raonic
It hasn’t been the greatest few months for Tsitsipas, at least on the court. His relationship with WTA star Paula Badosa has gained plenty of headlines with some suggesting his focus hasn’t been on his tennis.
Drawing Raonic will not have been welcome news in the Greek’s camp as the Canadian has won both previous meetings, with Tsitsipas creating only one break point (which he lost).
The big difference this time around is that Raonic is on the comeback trail after injury and isn’t at his best level yet. However, he was still good enough to beat top-20 star Frances Tiafoe in Toronto and if he gets that big serve working, Tsitsipas may well struggle.
He’s a lowly 25th in the return-games-won table in 2023 and failed to break serve during his recent losses to Gael Monfils and Hubert Hurkacz. In addition, Tsitsipas has never been beyond round three here and has lost in round one in two of the last four US Opens.
Raonic may well be worth a small bet to spring the upset, while a first-set tie-break at 6/4 also appeals.
While Tsitsipas isn’t the greatest on return, he actually tops the standings for service games won having held 89% of the time in 2023.
Quentin Halys v Benjamin Bonzi
Two Frenchmen who know each other’s games well will meet in New York on Monday and their head-to-head makes for interesting reading.
Halys leads 3-0 with every match won comfortably in straight sets.
Bonzi is only here thanks to the reciprocal wildcard agreement the French federation has with the USTA; certainly his form doesn’t warrant inclusion.
He’s won just two of his 10 matches since the French Open with all eight defeats coming in straight sets.
Halys has hardly been sparkling himself but, in the same period, he’s won a claycourt Challenger, beaten Dan Evans at Wimbledon and taken a set off top-10 star Jannik Sinner.
Given all that, a 3-0 victory for Halys here looks rather big at 100/30.
Posted at 1000 BST on 27/08/23
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