Tennis betting tips: Australian Open day four best bets Wednesday January 17

Tennis betting tips: Australian Open day four

1.5pts Gael Monfils to beat Tomas Etcheverry at 3/4 (BetVictor)

1pt Christoper Eubanks to win a set v Andrey Rublev at 19/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt over 1.5 tie-breaks in Stefanos Tsitsipas v Jordan Thompson at 4/1 (Sky Bet)

Gael Monfils v Tomas Etcheverry

I know Monfils is now 37 but I can’t help but feel he’s a good bet here as only a slight favourite.

I believe the bookies have put too much weight on Etcheverry’s straight-sets victory over Andy Murray on Monday when the Briton really didn’t do much.

He admitted himself afterwards: “I won’t win many matches playing that way.” That hopefully puts things into some perspective.

Monfils was also a winner in three sets in round one, easing past Yannick Hanfmann, a match which saw him lose serve only once and bang down 16 aces. On second serve, he won 64% of the points and a repeat performance with the balls in his hand would mean Etcheverry is up against it.

The Frenchman’s game looks more suited to the hardcourts of Melbourne and while the forecast suggests rain disruption and relative coolness on Wednesday, I’d still expect him to outgun his opponent.

I’ve written recently about how Monfils’ best tennis often comes when he’s fresh and while he didn’t deliver when we backed him to win the title in Auckland recently, this is usually a good period of the season for him.

As long as his body holds up – and it certainly shouldn’t be fatigued at present – I think Monfils wins this with a bit to spare.

Christopher Eubanks v Andrey Rublev

As big as 6/1 for the victory, Eubanks looks rather overpriced in this one.

Rublev only just survived round one, beating Thiago Seyboth Wild in a final-set tie-break.

He was frustrated by the Brazilian’s ability to come up with some big serves on break points – Rublev had 23 in total – and this match could see something similar occur.

Eubanks’ serve is a serious weapon, one behind which he won 88% of first-serve points as he dismantled Auckland finalist Taro Daniel in his opener.

The American faced only one break point in that contest (and saved it) and he certainly has the potential to make life awkward for the seeded player.

Eubanks played a tie-break in 35 of his 65 matches last year so there’s a potential angle there, while another possibility is the game handicap.

However, I’m going to side with Eubanks to win a set at a shade of odds-on.

He beat Borna Coric, Cam Norrie and Stefanos Tsitsipas last season and took sets off Daniil Medvedev, Hubert Hurkacz and Holger Rune.

This will be the first time Rublev has faced the Eubanks serve too, so I see his renowned frustration playing a part in this.

Throw in the fact that Rublev has won only two of his last 16 Grand Slam matches in straight sets and we have ourselves a bet.

Stefanos Tsitsipas v Jordan Thompson

Tsitsipas’ weakness on return has been well documented and that factor could play a part in his clash with home hope Thompson on Wednesday.

The Greek dropped the first set to lucky loser Zizou Bergs on Monday and is clearly still feeling his way back from the back injury which forced him out of November’s ATP Finals and raised its head again at a recent exhibition match.

Tsitsipas used a different serving stance early on against Bergs, although he denied this was a ploy to protect his back. He clicked into gear soon after but is unlikely to find things easy against an in-form opponent.

Thompson halted Rafael Nadal’s comeback in Brisbane, where he made the semis, and battled through round one in five sets the other day.

He’s a decent server and showed that when these two last met in Indian Wells last season, winning 83% of first-serve points and eventually edging the match in a final-set breaker.

Their five hardcourt sets have produced three tie-breaks which is rather understandable given the strengths and weaknesses both men possess.

For those looking for a longer shot on day four, 4/1 about there being over 1.5 tie-breaks may be worth a shout.

The cooler conditions are a concern, admittedly, so that’s why I’ll keep stakes small.

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