Devils vs. Flyers odds, picks, predictions: Philly has underdog value
It’s a bit ironic when a team leads the NHL in power play efficiency, but is third-to-last in goals against average.
That’s been the screenplay to the Devils’ season so far.
This identity has made for some fun, high-scoring affairs, but it’s negated their potential in the meantime. New Jersey has sunk out of the current playoff picture to the bottom of the Metropolitan Division, which was not the anticipated start after cracking the Conference Semi-Finals.
Philadelphia doesn’t wield the same offensive ceiling, but it has stuck around through the first quarter of the season with a sticky, aggressive approach that has weathered deeper opponents.
Striking first is an evident issue for the Devils; they have surrendered the first goal in seven of their last eight contests.
The goaltending is the achilles heel as both Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid are living in the sub .900 save percentage community, which slots Jersey No. 30 overall in stopping the puck.
Both netminders rank in the bottom third of the NHL in goals saved above expected. The Devils don’t give up a high rate of high-danger scoring chances, but neither goalie has been consistent on the 2.1 they allow per game.
The Flyers are a middle-of-the-pack high-danger generating lineup, but they get point production on a balanced scale up-and-down the lineup. Nine players average 10 points or higher with Travis Konecny and Travis Sanheim tied for the team lead at 16.
New Jersey is hot off a three-goal third period comeback victory against the Islanders, but it still gave up seven turnovers to New York’s four. They lost six of their previous eight games prior as they struggle through some hefty injury issues.
Timo Meier and Eric Haula will be absent from the top-six forward group on Thursday with puck-moving blue-liner Dougie Hamilton now being evaluated as well. This is in addition to Tomas Nosek’s placement on injury reserve.
The Devils are still an elite puck possession team at five-on-five play, but it clearly hasn’t been able to compensate for other incompetencies that have led to 15 of 20 games hitting the Over on goal totals this season.
Carter Hart’s numbers haven’t been much more superior to Jersey’s tandem. He is however chomping at the bit for a victory after losing three straight starts and still propelling himself to No. 4 overall in expected save percentage on unblocked shots (.961).
When you look at the two lineups on paper, it’s clear the Devils have the speed and talent edge. But the silver lining is players buying into their systems and that’s what has John Tortorella’s team a hair over .500 right now while Lindy Ruff continues scratching his head.
Flyers ML (+120 at bet365)
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