Diamondbacks-Braves prediction: Picks, odds on Thursday, July 20
The suddenly-slumping Atlanta Braves (61-33) look to avoid a fourth straight loss and a rare home sweep as they face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks (54-42) in the final game of a three-game series. First pitch of Thursday’s finale is set for 12:20 p.m. ET at Truist Park. It’ll be a battle of Cy Young contenders on the mound, as Arizona’s Zac Gallen (11-4, 3.14 ERA) goes up against Atlanta flame-thrower Spencer Strider (11-3, 3.66).
The D-backs had been struggling prior to this series, losing eight of 10 around the All-Star break and ceding control of the NL West to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Their road trip wraps up this weekend, as they head north for another marquee showdown against Elly De La Cruz and the Cincinnati Reds.
The Braves still own far and away the best record in the National League, but Atlanta is now just 4-6 over their last 10 games. They hit the road on Friday to kick off a weekend series against the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers.
Atlanta enters as heavy -200 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Arizona at +170. The run total is set at 9.
Diamondbacks-Braves picks: Thursday, July 20
Injury report
Diamondbacks
Out: SP Merrill Kelly (calf), RP Andrew Chafin (paternity)
Braves
Day-to-Day: OF Eddie Rosario (hamstring)
Out: RP AJ Minter (shoulder), RP Jesse Chavez (shin), OF Sam Hilliard (heel)
Starting pitchers
Zac Gallen vs. Spencer Strider
Gallen struggled a bit in his first appearance since starting the 2023 All-Star Game, allowing three runs on six hits and an uncharacteristic three walks in five innings of work against the Toronto Blue Jays last weekend. The righty’s top-line numbers are as sterling as ever, but he’s been a bit up and down since his unreal scoreless streak in the month of April: Since May 1, Gallen has a 3.57 ERA and a bloated 1.21 WHIP. His curveball and changeup are as lethal as ever, but his cutter has been smacked around this year to the tune of a .296 AVG and .521 SLG against.
Strider remains the league’s preeminent strikeout artist, but he’s also coming off a bumpy outing, giving up five runs on eight hits (while, of course, striking out 10) in six innings against the Chicago White Sox last weekend. He too has battled some inconsistency this season, at least by his standards, allowing four or more runs six times over his last 14 starts — largely due to a penchant for giving up home runs (1.5 HR/9, 15% HR/FB rate since May 1). Those rates are obviously a bit fluky, and Strider’s stuff is as electric as ever; his 3.06 expected ERA is far closer to his actual talent level, and he should get back down toward that number soon.
Over/Under pick
The two games in this series so far have totaled 28 — yes, these teams basically played a football game on Tuesday night — and 8. Despite the star power on the mound this afternoon, I’m backing the over on Thursday: If Gallen pitches the way he did against Toronto last weekend, emphasizing his mediocre cutter and getting hit hard, he could allow a crooked number to this red-hot Braves offense. I fully expect the Braves to wind up with a six or seven-spot by the end of this game, especially given the recent struggles of Arizona’s bullpen, which means all Corbin Carroll and Co. need to do is give us just a little bit of offense.
Pick: Over 9
Moneyline pick
In a battle of two aces looking for bounce-back starts, I have a lot more faith that Strider will be the one to get it done — he’s forcing as many whiffs as ever, and that’s as good an indicator of future success as there is. Atlanta has the advantage on the mound and at the plate with a slighty deeper lineup, and they’ll come out motivated to avoid a sweep.
