Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

The Philadelphia Phillies (81-68) and Atlanta Braves (96-53) open up a 3-game set at Truist Park Monday. First pitch is at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves lead 7-3

The Phillies took 2 of 3 on the road at the St. Louis Cardinals over the weekend but have still dropped 6 of their last 10 games. Philadelphia had lost 3 of 4 games to the Atlanta Braves in the previous series. The Phillies are still 3 1/2 games up on the rest of the fray for the top NL Wild Card spot. They need to remain focused though because there are 5 teams within 6 1/2 games of them.

Atlanta was swept in a 3-game series at the Miami Marlins over the weekend, allowing 36 runs in the series. The Braves have already clinched the division and are 4 1/2 games up on the Los Angeles Dodgers for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Kyle Wright

Wheeler (11-6, 3.70 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 175 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 4 K Tuesday against the Braves
• Last 5 regular season starts vs. Braves: 3-0, 3.27 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 41 K in 33 IP

Wright (0-2, 7.48 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.89 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 21 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K last Monday against Phillies
• Last 5 regular season starts vs. Phillies: 2-3, 5.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 21 K in 28 IP

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Phillies at Braves odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 9:20 a.m. ET.

Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Braves 5

Wheeler doesn’t have many back-to-back rough outings, and the Phils are facing a guy who is making just his 2nd start since May. The Phillies have more to play for, and the Braves have been absolutely shellacked the last 3 days.

I’m taking the PHILLIES (-105).

I like the Braves side here, but not the price.

PASS.

The Phillies are 6-4 O/U over the last 10, and the Braves are 8-2. The Over is 5-4-1 in the last 10 meetings between the teams, and the Over cashed in 3 of the 4 meetings last week. Wheeler could always hurl a gem to cash the Under, but all the momentum says we’re going Over.