Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

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The Arizona Diamondbacks (53-42) and Atlanta Braves (61-32) meet Wednesday as they continue a 3-game series. First pitch at Truist Park is slated for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: tied 2-2

Arizona turned the tide on a 4-game skid with a wild 16-13 Tuesday in the series opener. The clubs combined for 8 crooked numbers in the line score, and the Diamondbacks broke a 13-13 tie with 3 runs in the top of the 9th.

The Braves have lost 3 in a row, but they continue to crank out monster numbers in their home yard. Atlanta owns a high-contact .312/.375/.594 slash line over its last 21 games at home, hitting 52 home runs en route to posting a robust .969 OPS over that stretch.

Diamondbacks at Braves projected starters

RHP Ryne Nelson vs. RHP Charlie Morton

Nelson (5-5, 4.98 ERA) is making his 20th start. He has a 1.44 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 through 99 1/3 IP.

• Owns a 2.68 ERA and 1.09 WHIP across 10 starts on the road
• Has clocked a 3.91 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over his last 4 outings

Morton (10-6, 3.20 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 through 104 IP.

• Pitched 7 scoreless frames vs. the Chicago White Sox Friday and owns a 2.52 ERA over his last 7 starts

• Owns a 3.99 ERA across 341 career games

Diamondbacks at Braves odds

FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:30 a.m. ET.

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Diamondbacks at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Diamondbacks 6, Braves 5

Arizona went 9-1 over 10 series openers from May 29-June 30, and the Diamondbacks were a nice underdog play Tuesday (and cashed at +188). However, the visiting nine is a fade candidate after playing too far out over its skis for much of the first half. There is also no value to be had with an  Atlanta wager, especially with Morton likely being overvalued.

No leverage here. STEER CLEAR.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 92 games (+12.85 Units/11% ROI). Nelson doesn’t really add enough to make for a green check mark on the Arizona side of the ledger, but a more-likable-than-their-ERA Diamondbacks bullpen is in slightly better shape than their hosts for game 2.

PASS, but take Arizona +1.5 at +103 or better.

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Arizona has hit the team total Over in 27 of its last 37 road games (+16.75 Units, 40% ROI). Atlanta has hit its team Over in 26 of its last 35 games (+15.85 Units, 38% ROI).

Charlie Morton has been somewhat fortunate to strand 79.5% of his base runners. Both bullpens were rested Monday but used quite a bit in Tuesday’s 29-run pinball game. The higher-than-one-might-think elevation of Atlanta’s park and the heat and humidity make Truist Park one that favors the hitters.

On a warm, humid night, BACK THE OVER 10 (-105).

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