Dodgers vs Mariners Odds, Picks, & Predictions

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16 September 2023

Dodgers vs Mariners Odds, Picks, & Predictions

The Dodgers look to get Clayton Kershaw back on track against an up-and-down Mariners team that has been susceptible to the strikeout all year long. Our betting picks are bullish on the visitors as a result of the pitching matchup.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers took out the Seattle Mariners with ease on Friday night, and they’ll look to keep the good times rolling with their ace on the hill in Clayton Kershaw.

Will Bryce Miller get in their way, or will Seattle drop yet another crucial game?

Let’s break down Dodgers vs. Mariners in our MLB picks and predictions.

Dodgers vs Mariners odds

Dodgers vs Mariners predictions

Things have been going much better for Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw after a shocking month of May that saw him post a 5.55 ERA. The big lefty hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a start since... until his last outing saw him labor against the Marlins.

The issue in that one was control, something that’s been a bit of a theme this year for the veteran. Kershaw’s walked 7.3% of batters he’s faced, representing the highest rate of his career in that area since 2010, and he’s suffered a minor dip in ground balls and strikeouts. Even still, the five free passes he issued to Miami were an outlier. It was just the 14th time in his career (a span of 419 starts) that he's walked five or more.

Still, it’s hard to say he’s been bad enough that he’s worth fading here. The Seattle Mariners offense has returned to normal, putting together a 103 wRC+ in the last two weeks, and while this has been a good team versus lefties it is still striking out in 26.5% of those plate appearances and walking in 8%.

The Mariners aren’t a very disciplined team, which makes them a good matchup for Kershaw. On the other side of the coin, Bryce Miller lacks experience and the stuff to successfully pitch to contact. A .268 expected batting average won’t cut it against a team like L.A.

While he’s been great at limiting walks, that doesn’t normally play up against this side.

I’m comfortable paying up for the Dodgers.

My best bet: Dodgers moneyline (-136 at FanDuel)

Dodgers vs Mariners same-game parlay

Dodgers moneyline

Clayton Kershaw 5+ strikeouts

Jason Heyward 2+ total bases

The Dodgers are a strong first leg of the same-game parlay with their positive matchup on both sides of the ball. They certainly like to hit against right-handed pitching and Kershaw should absolutely eat against a team that is incredibly undisciplined.

So, we’ll take those advantages and use them to boost the odds on this one a bit. I love Kershaw’s strikeout props tonight against a team that has struck out more frequently than every team in baseball other than the Twins and owns a strikeout rate north of 26% against lefties. While Kershaw has had issues hitting this number over the last couple of months, he couldn’t ask for a better matchup.

Then, I’ll take Jason Heyward to go for two total bases here. He’s one of the top-ranked Dodgers against the fastball according to the pitch value data, and he’s also hitting .277 versus righties. I like to say that whenever Heyward is in the lineup, it’s on account of a good matchup and therefore he will hit.

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Dodgers vs Mariners moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Here’s the thing about Bryce Miller: I’m just not totally sold that he’s going to be a great big-league pitcher in the immediate future. Sure, he has talent and that strikeout upside is evident, but he’s struggled to get outs lately. His expected batting average in the month of September sits at .375, and last month it was .275. It’s continued to get worse with every month he’s been at this level.

Miller’s at risk of blowing up here against a competent Dodgers offense, and with that it’s hard for me to play the Under. I’m also a bit skeptical of Kershaw’s ability to cruise through this one, so I suppose that would mean the Over is probably the play if you want to take a bet on the total.

Over at DraftKings, 81% of the bets and 83% of the handle have come in on the Over here, and while 69% of the bets are on the Dodgers, the Mariners have commanded 51% of the handle. That seems to make the Mariners a sharp play here, but I can’t trust their offense.

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Trend to know

Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. the Mariners. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Mariners

Dodgers vs Mariners game info

Starting pitchers

Clayton Kershaw (12-4, 2.61 ERA): The lefty hasn’t pitched since September 5, when he surrendered three runs on five hits and five walks over five frames against the Marlins. With some extra rest, the Dodgers are hoping he can find his groove again.

Bryce Miller (8-5, 4.05 ERA): The rookie right-hander allowed five earned runs on nine hits with seven strikeouts in his last outing. He’d figured out how to get through starts somewhat cleanly in recent months, but he’s never been able to avoid giving up a boatload of hits.