Diamondbacks vs Twins Prediction

pickdawgz.com

04 August 2023

The Arizona Diamondbacks will play the Minnesota Twins in Game 1 of their series on Friday night at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Arizona has really struggled over the last few weeks and they are dropping in the NL Wild Card standings, while Minnesota is currently leading the weak AL Central.

Diamondbacks Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 57-53 this season and they have lost six of their last eight games. Arizona is coming off of a series loss to the Giants, where they lost three out of four games. The Diamondbacks offense has really slowed down recently, scoring three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games. The Arizona pitching staff has a 4.59 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a .253 opponent batting average this season. The Diamondbacks offense has scored 526 runs with a .255 batting average and a .323 on base percentage. Corbin Carroll is batting .276 with 21 home runs and 59 RBI’s for the Diamondbacks. The projected starting pitcher for Arizona is Merrill Kelly, who is 9-5 with a 3.23 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 106.0 innings pitched this year.

Twins Preview

The Minnesota Twins are 56-54 this season and they have lost six of their last eight games. Minnesota is coming off of a series win against the Cardinals, where they won two out of three games. The Twins were able to get a nice series win in St. Louis, which snapped five straight losses to the Royals and the Mariners. The Minnesota pitching staff has a 3.89 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a .233 opponent batting average. The Twins offense has scored 481 runs with a .236 batting average and a .314 on base percentage this year. Carlos Correa is batting .223 with 12 home runs and 45 RBI’s for the Twins. The projected starting pitcher for Minnesota is Bailey Ober, who is 6-5 with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 98.2 innings pitched this season.

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Minnesota Twins Team Facts

The underdogs have won five of the last six games between the Diamondbacks and Twins.
The Twins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games following a win.
The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Twins' last five home games against NL West opponents.
The Twins have trailed after 7 innings in five of their last seven games as favourites.

Arizona Diamondbacks Team Facts

The Diamondbacks have won each of their last six road games against AL Central opponents.
The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as road underdogs against AL Central opponents following a loss.
The Diamondbacks have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last four road games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five road games against American League opponents.
The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games against American League opponents.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

Max Kepler has scored at least one run in five of his last six appearances with the Twins as favourites against NL West opponents.
Bailey Ober has recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances against NL opponents.
Joey Gallo has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances with his team as a home favourite against the Diamondbacks.
Carlos Correa has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Twins' last four games at Target Field against NL opponents that held a winning record.
Jorge Polanco has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
Carlos Correa has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last eight appearances against NL opponents at Target Field.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

Merrill Kelly has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
Christian Walker has hit at least one home run in three of the Diamondbacks' last five games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
Christian Walker has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Diamondbacks' last six games against AL Central opponents.
Alek Thomas has scored a run in four of the Diamondbacks' last five games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
Christian Walker has recorded two hits in each of the Diamondbacks' last four games against AL Central opponents.
Christian Walker has recorded three or more total bases in each of the Diamondbacks' last four games against AL Central opponents.
Corbin Carroll ranks 9th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.525) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

The Minnesota Twins ranks 3rd in the league for walks allowed this season (299).
The Minnesota Twins ranks 3rd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.233).
The Arizona Diamondbacks are one of only 3 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
The Arizona Diamondbacks ranks 4th in the league for strikeouts against this season (854).

Pick

The Diamondbacks limp into this game as they are in desperate need of a series win, while Minnesota was able to snap their losing streak with their series win over the Cardinals. The Twins hold a slim lead over the Guardians in the AL Central, but they are only two games above .500. Arizona is starting Merrill Kelly, who has allowed nine earned runs in his last 16 innings of work. The Twins are starting Bailey Ober, who has allowed 6, 2, and 3 earned runs in his last three starts. I don’t like how either of these teams have played recently, but I am going to side with Arizona here. The Twins are hovering right around the .500 mark and I like Kelly more than Ober. Take Arizona in this matchup.